Bitcoin showed signs of weakness on Monday, even as global risk appetite improved. While the Nasdaq rose 1.4% and the S&P 500 climbed 0.8%, BTC dropped as low as $58,801 during the day before recovering to trade near $60,104. The daily opening stood at $59,473, marking a roughly 1.06% intraday gain despite the initial dip.
Technical indicators signal ongoing downward pressure
Key technical signals on the daily chart point to continued selling pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures the momentum of price movements between 0 and 100, is currently at 34. While a reading of 30 signals an oversold market, Bitcoin’s 34 indicates that it is approaching this threshold, but has yet to fully enter oversold territory.
Mini glossary: The ADX is a technical indicator that measures the strength—not the direction—of a trend. Generally, readings above 25 signal a strong and pronounced trend in the market.
The same chart shows the ADX at 36.9, suggesting a clear, strong trend rather than a weak one. Exponential moving averages (EMA) are also sending bearish signals. The 50-day EMA is around $66,913, while the 200-day EMA stands at approximately $76,517. With prices trading below both averages, and the 50-day EMA having crossed beneath the 200-day—a pattern known as a “death cross”—the outlook remains negative.
If the daily chart sees the $58,035 support break, the next significant level to watch would be $55,528.
Key support levels and possible scenarios
In the short term, $58,035 is viewed as the most critical threshold in the market. This level has acted as a horizontal support during the decline from the June high of $67,253. During Monday’s pullback, buyers stepped in near this zone, though it remains unclear how many more times this support can hold.
If this level is breached, analysts see little meaningful support on the daily chart until $55,528. On the upside, any recovery would first target the Fibonacci “golden pocket” between $62,644 and $63,732. Above this, resistance awaits around $65,000 with the downtrend line, followed by the 50-day EMA at $66,913.
| Indicator | Level | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| Main support | $58,035 | Short-term zone under close watch |
| Lower support | $55,528 | Next key level if broken |
| First recovery zone | $62,644 to $63,732 | Initial major resistance on an upward move |
Macro backdrop and market expectations
The pressure on Bitcoin is not limited to technical factors. Around $4 billion exited spot Bitcoin ETFs in June, signaling waning institutional demand that had previously supported prices during earlier pullbacks. Meanwhile, monetary policy expectations are also failing to support risk assets, as markets now price in an 80% probability of an interest rate hike in December.
Broadly, Bitcoin remains about 53% below its all-time high of $126,198, set in October 2025. The cryptocurrency has also posted back-to-back quarterly losses for the first time since the 2022 bear market, underscoring the continued pressure on the medium-term trend even as short-term rebounds occasionally occur.
On the Myriad exchange, market participants are assigning higher odds to a move towards $55,000 rather than a return to $84,000 for Bitcoin.
Price remains compressed in the short term
Zooming into the four-hour chart, Bitcoin has formed a narrow trading range between approximately $59,200 and $60,400. With momentum remaining only slightly positive at around +0.26, this band has yet to break, suggesting that prices may stay confined within this range for now.
However, a drop below $59,200 could disrupt this short-term equilibrium. As a result, both the $58,035 support below and the $62,644–$63,732 area above emerge as key barriers that traders are closely monitoring to determine Bitcoin’s next direction.
