As the weekly close approaches, Bitcoin is trading near its highest levels in two weeks, holding steady close to the crucial $62,700 mark. This price is significant, as it represents the 200-week simple moving average, a key technical threshold for the long-term market outlook.
Intense price battle at a major technical threshold
Over the weekend, thinner order books and the three-day holiday in the United States led to weaker trading conditions. Despite this, buyers managed to push the price up to $63,450. However, some market observers believe that sell orders clustered at higher levels are capping further gains and putting pressure on the price.
Market analyst Exitpump noted that Bitcoin faced strong passive selling from above, which has limited its upward momentum.
Daan Crypto Trades highlighted that short positions have been liquidated during the recent rally. According to data from CoinGlass, total crypto market liquidations reached $167 million in the past 24 hours. CoinGlass is a data platform known for tracking liquidations and open interest in derivatives markets.
Glossary: A short squeeze occurs when traders betting against the price are forced to close their positions as prices rise. This process creates extra buying pressure that can accelerate upward moves temporarily.
Daan Crypto Trades emphasized that the market produced a classic short squeeze in response to the heavy buildup of short positions, and forced liquidations helped fuel the rally.
Trader Killa pointed out an interesting trend: Bitcoin has shown notable weakness on each of the last seven Mondays. This has led to expectations of renewed volatility at the start of the new trading week.
Spot ETF inflows and macro data take center stage
In a market note released Friday, QCP Capital suggested that crypto assets and other risk assets may be entering a more supportive environment. The firm cited the return of net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs as a key factor behind this improved outlook.
US nonfarm payrolls data released last week came in below expectations, easing concerns about aggressive rate hikes. QCP Capital interprets the 2% increase in gold as a clear sign of a more dovish Fed expectation, remarking that this movement is tied more to safe haven demand and real yield protection than outright growth optimism.
According to the CME Group FedWatch Tool, there is now an 80% probability that the US Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged at its July 29 policy meeting. QCP Capital added that further widespread optimism will require supportive consumer price index data before that date.
| Indicator | Level | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| 200-week SMA | $62,700 | Key long-term technical threshold |
| Weekend high | $63,450 | Latest buyer-driven level |
| 24-hour liquidations | $167 million | Indicates short position pressure |
| Probability of rate hold July 29 | About 80% | Reflects macro expectations |
Currently, the market is closely watching both the ongoing price action around the $62,700 level and the potential impact of upcoming macroeconomic data on risk appetite. Analysts suggest that trading on Monday could be decisive in determining whether Bitcoin will maintain support above this key region in the short term.
