Bitcoin 
$76,115 has entered a critical technical phase, dropping from $93,000 to below $89,000 at the start of the new week due to a decline in risk appetite. The largest cryptocurrency, which has been moving in an upward channel for the past three weeks, now faces the risk of testing the $80,000 level again as the Nasdaq index turns downward.
Nasdaq’s Weakness Transfers to Bitcoin
Last week, Wall Street’s tech-heavy Nasdaq index formed a bearish engulfing pattern with a 2% loss. This pattern signals a rejection of the uptrend and the possibility of a new wave of selling. This outlook triggers cautious price behavior in risk assets like Bitcoin, as there is a historical correlation between Bitcoin and Nasdaq, especially when tech stocks experience a downturn.
The recovery that started at $80,000 at the end of November, supported by the dollar index weakening following the Fed’s interest rate cut, failed to gain lasting momentum. Last week, Bitcoin’s price declined from $93,000 on Friday to $88,000 by Sunday night. It closed the week with a long-wicked red candlestick signaling rejection above $94,000. Analysts suggest this formation strengthens the “sell on rallies” tendency and indicates weakening momentum.
MOVE Index Signals Volatility Warning
The MOVE index, a gauge of stress in the bond markets, formed an “inverted hammer” pattern last week, indicating a possible increase in volatility. This formation after a long-term downtrend suggests that volatility in U.S. Treasury bonds could rise, potentially tightening global financial conditions.
Historically, Bitcoin tends to move inversely with the MOVE index. Thus, a potential increase in bond market volatility could create new pressure on the cryptocurrency market. Technically, a break below Bitcoin’s upward channel increases the likelihood of $80,000 being tested again. On the upside recovery scenario, breaking beyond the $94,000–$95,000 range is essential. However, strong resistance levels such as the 50-day moving average and the Ichimoku cloud lie in the $96,000–$100,000 band.
