Bitcoin hovered near $64,150 over the weekend, failing to hold above key resistance after buyers lost momentum amid renewed Middle East tensions and rising outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Trump Halts Strikes, Market Watches Geopolitical Risks
US President Donald Trump paused military action against Iran, allowing negotiations with Tehran to proceed after 13 consecutive nights of US bombing. He stated that the US remained “locked and loaded,” but signaled that diplomatic efforts continued through backchannels.
Trump tasked Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio with maintaining communication with Iranian officials, highlighting that Tehran was showing increased readiness to engage in talks.
The president described two available strategies: pursuing a military withdrawal or seeking a negotiated solution. He had also warned about a potential “massive” strike, targeting critical Iranian infrastructure such as bridges and power plants.
Regional tensions escalated after attacks by Iran-backed Houthi rebels on Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, sending Brent crude above $100. Iran also launched strikes on US and allied positions in Jordan, Bahrain, and Kuwait.
Trump said the US would move to seize billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets to offset the damage sustained in recent attacks on commercial shipping vessels. While the pause in US strikes temporarily eased concerns of broader military escalation, lingering geopolitical uncertainty kept investors wary.
ETF Outflows and Institutional Retreat
Spot Bitcoin ETFs registered over $465 million in net outflows across Thursday and Friday. BlackRock’s IBIT ETF accounted for $212 million withdrawn on Friday, marking its largest single-day loss during the pullback.
These outflows contributed to increased selling pressure as Bitcoin remained blocked below the key $65,000 to $67,000 resistance band. Institutional appetite turned softer as the market digested both international headlines and the less favorable ETF flows.
Net stablecoin transfers to exchanges dropped to multi-month lows, according to CryptoQuant, indicating fewer liquid funds available for immediate short-term purchases and a slowdown in retail participation.
Regulatory questions also weighed on market sentiment. Senate gridlock around the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, especially bipartisan disagreements over ethics rules for federal officials, has dimmed prospects for meaningful crypto regulation before the congressional summer recess.
Options Data and Market Technicals
Analysis from Glassnode revealed that Bitcoin options traders reduced downside hedging, with the open interest put-call ratio falling from 0.76 in late June to roughly 0.52. Short-dated skew also declined, reflecting a shift in positioning as calls attracted greater interest relative to puts.
Implied volatility for one-week at-the-money options stood at 34.3%, while the six-month volatility reached 40.8%. The overall volatility curve maintained an upward slope, implying a lower risk of immediate events but preserving uncertainty over longer horizons. Front-end 25-delta skew hovered close to 4%, with longer-term skew between 11% and 12%.
Glassnode observed that as short-term downside hedging unwound, Bitcoin steadied near the $64,000 level, though longer-term options still reflected a preference for protection against major swings.
In technical trading, Bitcoin’s main support is set between $63,800 and $64,000. A sustained move below this range could see the price test secondary support at $62,000 or even $60,000.
Resistance remains firm from $65,000 to $67,000 after multiple failed attempts to clear this range. Bulls require a strong daily close above $67,000 to revive momentum and aim for the $71,000 level.
Short-term holders face a realized price near $68,000, close to breakeven. Many may seek to reduce exposure before prices reach this level, raising the risk of selling into any rally.
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