On Sunday, Bitcoin 
$76,467‘s price dropped below 88,000 dollars as it neared the daily close, signaling a tough phase for investors. The monotonous market conditions continue to exert strain on altcoins. However, Darkfost suggests an opportunity may be on the horizon.
Potential Signals in the Cryptocurrency Market
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost recently highlighted the significance of NVT data. By using the Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio, the analyst assesses Bitcoin’s value based on its on-chain activity, comparing the market value to network transaction volumes. Darkfost endeavors to identify the true standard deviation using the Z-score of monthly and 90-day moving averages and has noticed something intriguing.
The 30-day moving average NVT Z-score currently stands at −0.87, a level last seen in May 2022. Bitcoin has seen such deterioration that it has returned to conditions similar to 2022, with the illusion of a higher price near 90,000 dollars due to the last cyclical peak. Investors are unaware of how substantial the losses have been.
Today’s conditions mirror the previous cycle when BTC fell below 40,000 dollars. Two factors contribute to the NVT decline: a decreasing market value and increasing transaction volumes. When combined with other bottom indicators, this could be perceived as a “buying opportunity.” The analyst elaborates on these insights.
“Today’s known facts are that Bitcoin’s market value dropped significantly in recent months, whereas its on-chain and spot volumes remained relatively stable, except for a November spike at Coinbase. Such value loss is historically intriguing and may present strong opportunities in the medium term. However, caution is imperative; if a genuine bear market ensues, many signals from metrics will likely become invalid.”
Altcoin Trends and Observations
Analyst Poppe examined the TOTALCAP chart and noted similarities with conditions post-COVID-19 crash after a similar correction to February 2025. Prices stagnated with unclear trends before gradually rallying again. Current resistance and support are marked at 3.2 trillion dollars and 2.85 trillion dollars, respectively; breaking through one will indicate direction.
The movement of ETHBTC above the 20-day moving average is another noteworthy development for altcoins. Although an early signal, Ethereum 
$2,266‘s relative strength suggests hope for altcoins.
