Institutional buying has ramped up in the cryptocurrency market, yet overall demand for bitcoin remains subdued, with persistent selling pressure muting price gains. Despite robust inflows into bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and steady accumulation by major firms in recent weeks, more market participants have been looking to sell rather than hold. Weekly research from CryptoQuant found that in March, the market saw net sales totaling 63,000 BTC over a 30-day period—highlighting the ongoing tension between buyers and sellers.
Institutional appetite faces resistance from broader market
In the past month, ETF products took in a record 50,000 BTC, while one major investment firm maintained a stable reserve with roughly 44,000 BTC added to its portfolio during the same window. Together, these two drivers accounted for 94,000 BTC of net institutional demand in March—a striking figure that seems, at first glance, to signal optimism.
However, this wave of institutional accumulation was met with significant resistance. Large retail holders, miners, long-term “whales”—investors who have been active in the market for years—and various funds have collectively sold approximately 157,000 BTC. The pressure from such widespread selling has outweighed the support from institutional inflows, hampering an upward move in prices.
A look at historical trends underscores the scale of recent sales. A year ago, wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC had increased their collective balance by 200,000 BTC. In stark contrast, this group has offloaded about 188,000 BTC over the past 18 months, marking one of the fastest and most intense selling periods in bitcoin’s history.
Price dynamics and shifting market sentiment
Bitcoin is currently trading between $67,000 and $68,000—roughly 21% higher than the network’s average cost basis of $54,286. In previous market cycles, significant corrections often occurred when prices dipped below this so-called “realized price,” which was generally seen as a bottoming signal. While the current price has not fallen beneath this threshold, the margin by which it exceeds that level has narrowed considerably: over the last 15 months, this premium has dropped from 120% to just 21%.
Market psychology is also under strain. The “Fear and Greed” index, which measures investor sentiment, has lingered in extreme fear territory—between 8 and 14—during the past month. In contrast, over $1 billion in net assets flowed into bitcoin ETFs in March, suggesting divergent attitudes between long-term and institutional investors versus the broader market.
Jason Fernandes, co-founder of AdLunam and a market analyst, noted that bitcoin’s recent tendency to consolidate after 50% pullbacks shows a maturing market structure. He argued that deeper institutional involvement and greater liquidity now work to dampen price swings in both directions.
Meanwhile, prices on U.S.-based exchanges have lately traded at a discount compared to other major platforms. The persistently negative Coinbase Premium Index suggests that American investors have yet to return in force at higher prices, underlining a cautious stance among domestic participants.
Geopolitical events are also causing volatility. In the past five weeks, as tensions between Iran and other nations flared, bitcoin traded in a wide band between $65,000 and $73,000. Periods of heightened uncertainty saw investors move to the sidelines, choosing safety over risk-taking in response to headlines.
This week, Morgan Stanley received approval to launch a bitcoin ETF product with management fees lower than the industry average. The offering grants access to a network of 16,000 financial advisors overseeing $6.2 trillion in assets, enabling direct ETF investments. Relatedly, the firm’s flagship bitcoin product has attracted hundreds of millions of dollars in fresh inflows recently.
CryptoQuant’s report says that if tensions between Iran and other countries ease, bitcoin could rise toward the $71,500–$81,200 range. Still, analysts caution that the ability of ETFs and new investor channels to absorb ongoing selling pressure will be key to sustaining the current price levels in the face of softer overall demand.
