Bitcoin struggled to surpass $80,000 over the weekend, retreating toward the crucial $74,000 to $75,000 range, a zone that has repeatedly served as a major support level over the past two years. Several cryptocurrency analysts warn that an upcoming test of this range could be the most critical support evaluation for BTC in the current downtrend.
Key technical levels emerge
Crypto analyst Ardi notes that this price corridor has acted as both a resistance and support over the past two years. A level that BTC failed to break through for much of the first quarter in 2024, it eventually laid the groundwork for Bitcoin’s journey toward its peak, nearing $126,000. According to Ardi, retesting this area under mounting downward pressure will be a decisive moment for the broader market. Last week, Bitcoin’s price dropped 5.78 percent to $77,900.
Another market watcher, Alex Wacy, flags $70,000 as the next threshold to watch. Wacy suggests that holding above this level could pave the way for a fresh rally into the $85,000 to $90,000 range, while a break below could prompt a slide toward $50,000 to $60,000.
Signals of weakening market indicators
Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. reports that after BTC failed to hold above $82,000 this month, the Bitcoin bull-bear structure index turned negative again. The index tracks six key data points, including spot ETF demand, investor activity, exchange flows, and short-term price movement averages. A positive index value signals buyers dominate, while a negative value shows an increase in selling pressure.
The index’s positive momentum lasted just three trading days. On May 6, it turned positive and BTC approached $82,000. By May 17, however, the value plummeted to -23.49, reflecting resurgent selling dominance.
A recent report by crypto analytics platform CryptoQuant highlights a surge in BTC transfers to exchanges, with selling pressure mounting especially among investors who bought in during the past six to twelve months. These coins have an average purchase price of approximately $110,851, which means many holders are now facing significant unrealized losses following the latest price drop.
Older coins drive recent market activity
During the latest volatility, the share of older BTC being actively traded on exchanges has risen sharply. Data shows this cohort’s transfer rate has climbed to 10.54 percent—a striking jump from its usual sub-1 percent average. Analysts interpret this as experienced investors starting to exit positions in the face of worsening sentiment. Easy On Chain, a prominent market observer, notes that investor psychology and selling decisions can shift rapidly, especially during downturns.
Experts believe moves by long-term BTC holders can sometimes intensify selling pressure on exchanges, making support levels all the more critical at such times.
Altogether, these signals highlight the importance of closely monitoring both BTC’s technical supports and shifts in investor behavior for further market direction.
