The recent downward trend in the cryptocurrency market has put significant pressure on the prices of Bitcoin and major altcoins. Bitcoin dipped below the $75,000 mark on Wednesday, signaling the dominance of sellers in the market. Notably, there was a substantial outflow from Bitcoin ETFs held by institutional investors, with net withdrawals totaling $1.88 billion since May 15.
Institutions pull back from Bitcoin ETFs
According to figures released by Farside Investors, nearly every trading day since May 7 has seen net outflows from Bitcoin ETFs. Glassnode, a crypto analytics firm, stated that these outflows have increased supply in the market while failing to attract corresponding demand. In its latest report, Bitwise highlighted that Bitcoin’s value has fallen below its long-term average. Historically, periods when BTC’s market value to realized value ratio (MVRV) was below the current 1.42 level made up only 36% of the time. By comparison, this figure stands at 99% for the Nasdaq-100, marking a record disparity in valuations between crypto and US tech stocks.
Bitwise’s analysis notes: “In the past, Bitcoin’s market value dropped below realized value only for short periods. Current levels indicate a historic high in valuation differences between indexes.”
Whales hunt for opportunity
Despite the downturn, some large-scale investors have shifted towards buying. Adam Back, CEO of Blockstream, revealed that a crypto “whale” accumulated an average of 450 BTC daily over the past eight and a half days. This investor reportedly used a time-weighted average price method to make systematic purchases at lower price levels.
Glossary: The time-weighted average price (TWAP) method allows large-volume buyers to place trades at intervals to minimize their impact on the market, thereby preventing sudden price swings from single large transactions.
Critical support levels for Bitcoin and altcoins
Technical analysis shows that Bitcoin was rejected at its 20-day exponential moving average of $77,431. Intense competition between buyers and sellers is now concentrated in the support range between $76,000 and $74,289. If this range fails, the price could retreat to the next support at $70,500. However, a strong bounce from buyers could trigger a move first to $82,000 and then to $84,000.
| Coin | Key Support | Resistance | Short-Term Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | $74,289 | $77,431 / $82,000 | If weakness persists, $70,500 may come into play |
| ETH | $2,000 | $2,465 | Potential fall to $1,916–$1,750 |
| BNB | $636 / $610 | $687 / $730 | Risk of slip to $570 |
| XRP | $1.27 | $1.37 / $1.61 | Chance of steep drop to $1 |
| SOL | $82.65 / $76 | $98 | Possible fall to $76 |
Altcoins remain under pressure
Ethereum has found psychological support near $2,000, but a break below this level could see a slide to the $1,916–$1,750 range. Recovery would require prices to move above the moving averages. Binance Coin is hovering just above its 20-day EMA at $652, but if it dips below $636, subsequent declines towards $610 and even $570 could follow.
XRP is trading close to critical support at $1.27, where bulls are expected to mount a strong defense. If XRP closes below this level, further drops to $1.11 and potentially $1 are likely. Solana is caught between its 20-day EMA at $86.42 and support at $82.65; a move lower could see it fall to $76.
HYPE, ZEC, ADA, and XMR: Other key movers
HYPE (Hyperliquid) faced heavy selling at $64.93 and is now testing support at $59.41. Should this support break, next targets lie at $52.14 and, further below, $44.92.
Zcash fell from $690 on Monday and is now trading below the 20-day moving average at $571. If sellers maintain their hold, the price could drop to the $486–$457 zone. Cardano (ADA) remains stuck below its moving averages near $0.22 support, with a rally contingent on breaking through the averages and surpassing $0.31.
Monero (XMR) is holding within a rising channel, finding support at the 50-day moving average of $378. Still, a downward break could see the price slide towards the lower line of the channel.
