Spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) traded in the United States have registered a total inflow of $2.1 billion over the past eight consecutive days, marking the longest uninterrupted streak of net investment so far this year, following a similar run in October 2023. On April 23 alone, net inflows reached $223.2 million, with BlackRock’s IBIT accounting for $167.5 million of that amount. The only noticeable outflow came from Fidelity’s FBTC, which posted a $16.9 million withdrawal on the same day.
Record trading volume and market impact
During this period of strong ETF demand, the price of bitcoin surged from $68,000 to $77,000—an increase of approximately 12 percent. Since the launch of spot ETFs, cumulative net inflows have hit $58 billion, while total ETF assets under management have swelled to $102 billion. Together, these ETFs now represent about 6.5 percent of bitcoin’s total market capitalization.
Long-term investors have driven most of the market action in recent weeks, while short-term traders used the price rally to take profits. According to a recent report by Glassnode, bitcoin recaptured its True Market Mean price of $78,100 at the beginning of the week. This metric reflects the average acquisition cost for active bitcoin holders and is often considered a signal of the transition out of a bear market.
Short-term investors face key threshold
Analysts emphasize an even more critical threshold at $80,100, which marks the average entry price for short-term investors over the past 155 days. If bitcoin’s price pushes above this point, more than 54 percent of new investors will find themselves in profit for the first time.
Historical trends show that once this level is surpassed, a large share of short-term holders typically exit their positions, often establishing a local market top. At present, the same pattern appears to be emerging again; during the first attempt, bitcoin’s advance was rejected at this level.
The Glassnode report indicates that the hourly realized profit for short-term investors has climbed to $4.4 million. Notably, every local market peak this year has followed occasions when this indicator exceeded $1.5 million—a level that has now been surpassed almost threefold.
Liquidity concerns and future risks
Meanwhile, funding rates in bitcoin perpetual futures markets remain negative, meaning short sellers are paying a premium to long positions. A brief short squeeze last Saturday propelled bitcoin to nearly $78,000 before geopolitical tensions in the Middle East sparked a sharp price retreat.
Should demand from ETFs and perpetual futures converge, another squeeze could push bitcoin to test the $80,000 barrier. Whether this resistance is overcome depends on the selling pressure from short-term investors. If past cycles are any guide, increased selling at key levels can trigger retracements, whereas muted selling could pave the way for new highs.
A comparable seven-day rally occurred in March, ending in the same week bitcoin reached a local high. Although this current period is not identical, similar cyclical patterns are noticeable. BlackRock’s leading ETF has attracted large-scale inflows while other smaller issuers experience more inconsistent trading activity.
At this juncture, market participants are closely watching to see whether demand fueled by ETFs and liquidity provided to short-term investors will favor further growth or a market pullback. The $80,000 level remains a pivotal psychological barrier for investors.
