The peace agreement reached over the weekend between the United States and Iran, together with news that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen, sparked a wave of relief in global markets. Oil prices tumbled by over 4%, copper prices surged, the MSCI Asia Pacific index climbed 3%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 index hit record highs. In stark contrast, the response from cryptocurrency markets remained notably muted.
Limited reaction in crypto markets
While the CoinDesk 20 index traded sideways since midnight, it posted a modest 2.4% gain over the last 24 hours. BTC failed to climb above $66,000, unable to build on its 3.4% weekend rally. ETH followed a similar pattern. Small-cap altcoins saw somewhat more activity, with the CoinDesk 80 index rising 1.5% over the same period.
This cautious stance among investors is linked to the history of short-lived ceasefires in the region. The truce in April quickly collapsed, and another settlement on June 9 dissolved following US air strikes. In both cases, BTC initially rallied, only to surrender those gains soon after. As a result, traders seem unwilling to price in an agreement that might not be formalized until the weekend.
With no fresh crypto-specific catalysts, markets are reacting to geopolitical news; however, investors are approaching this headline more cautiously after previous ceasefires failed to hold.
Derivatives market appetite rises, but not aggressively
Data from the derivatives segment points to a gradual return of institutional interest. BTC open interest hit $17.4 billion, up roughly 7% compared to a week ago. The three-month annualized basis rate also inched higher, from 2.8% to 3.0%.
However, funding rates on most platforms remained between 0% and negative 4% annualized. Despite the uptick in open interest and basis, there was no sign of robust demand for leveraged perpetual positions. On the options front, the picture was mixed: while puts dominated the past 24 hours, implied volatility showed no significant stress, with Deribit’s DVOL index falling 3.4% to 39 during the day.
Coinglass data shows a total of $343 million in positions were liquidated in the past 24 hours, with 27% coming from longs and 73% from shorts. BTC accounted for $136 million of liquidations, while ETH followed with $60 million. According to Binance, $66,100 is now a key level for liquidations in the event of a price spike.
Censorship-resistance narrative boosts ai tokens
Among the standout moves in the market was a rally in decentralized AI tokens. Following a US government request for Anthropic to restrict foreign access to its two most advanced models, the Venice VVV token surged around 14% on Saturday to $16.37, with trading volume nearly doubling to almost $130 million. Morpheus’s MOR token also spiked by approximately 21% to reach $2.28.
Mini glossary: Anthropic is a technology firm developing generative AI models. Export controls are official regulations that limit the access of certain technologies to foreign individuals or countries.
Anthropic announced it had temporarily suspended both the Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models for all users in response to a US Commerce Department request for access restrictions. The company described the problem as narrowly focused on a technical issue related to model security protections and said it was working to resolve it.
Anthropic revealed that, complying with Commerce Department export control rules, it disabled access to its new models for foreign users, leading to both models being temporarily taken offline.
Venice founder and ShapeShift co-founder Erik Voorhees commented after the development, “There is a reason why we built Venice.” The Morpheus team also emphasized their permissionless AI philosophy. However, trading data indicates the price spike is driven more by the narrative of censorship resistance than any technical breakthroughs.
