A new scientific report commissioned by Coinbase finds that while the cryptocurrency sector is unlikely to face an immediate direct quantum computer threat, the industry must not delay its preparations. The independent advisory panel behind the 50-page report includes renowned Stanford cryptography expert Dan Boneh, Ethereum Foundation’s Justin Drake, and Sreeram Kannan from Eigen Labs. Although today’s blockchains remain secure, the authors emphasize that it is increasingly likely quantum computers will eventually reach the capability to break current cryptographic protections.
Quantum computing and crypto security
The report underlines that, for now, existing quantum machines are not powerful enough to compromise the cryptography at the core of Bitcoin, Ethereum, or similar networks. Creating a quantum computer of the necessary scale and error tolerance is still seen as a significant engineering challenge.
Still, Google’s researchers have forecast that a sufficiently capable quantum computer could, in the future, realistically threaten Bitcoin’s cryptography. This possibility is now being taken much more seriously than before in both research and technical circles.
To mitigate these risks, the Ethereum Foundation is actively exploring more secure forms of digital signatures. Meanwhile, on platforms such as Solana, teams are developing quantum-resistant wallets and other protective measures to safeguard users.
Transition hurdles and new solutions
The report advocates for carefully planned transitions within the crypto industry, rather than rushed action. The US National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) currently recommends shifting to quantum-resistant cryptography by 2035, yet the report cautions even this timeline might be overly optimistic.
The report notes, “It is not wise to expect this to become an urgent matter; safely migrating networks, wallets, and exchanges could take years.”
One of the biggest obstacles to quantum-resistant cryptography adoption is migrating millions of crypto wallets—including those holding forgotten or inactive assets. The report points out that Bitcoin wallets with previously exposed public keys may be especially vulnerable in the near term.
Post-quantum cryptography and its impact
As part of its standardization process, NIST is already reviewing post-quantum cryptography systems, which are now available. However, these new solutions can require much larger data sizes and incur significantly higher processing costs compared to traditional cryptographic techniques.
The report estimates that adopting quantum-proof digital signatures could increase block sizes by as much as 38 times, leading to a substantial rise in the storage, data transfer costs, and the overall processing burden on blockchains.
The authors suggest there is no one-size-fits-all solution. Instead, they recommend “hybrid” migration models, where both current and next-generation cryptographic methods are used in tandem, allowing for a phased, flexible transition over time.
To ensure that neither security nor performance are compromised during this transition, the authors urge the industry to develop adaptable solutions capable of handling diverse requirements and future threats.
The report concludes: “The right time to begin preparations is now.”
