Experts have downgraded the year-end trading volume and performance expectations for the cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase due to uncertainties caused by Trump’s tariffs. Reports indicate that a decrease in individual investors’ risk appetite has led to sharp declines in forecasts.
Coinbase (COIN) Targets
Oppenheimer investment bank has reduced its annual trading volume forecast for Coinbase by 19%, bringing it down to $1.3 trillion. Additionally, the first-quarter estimate has been cut by 13% from the previous quarter to $380 billion. This decline raises concerns regarding reduced market activity and investor interest.
Despite the supportive signals from the U.S. administration and regulatory bodies for the cryptocurrency sector, tariffs are undermining risk appetite.
“Since the election, we have seen the most supportive statements for the sector from government decisions, Congress, and regulatory announcements. However, Trump’s tariffs lead to declines and uncertainty.” – Analyst Owen Lau
Coinbase Predictions
According to analysts, Coinbase’s stock value has fallen by 30% this year, while indices like Bitcoin 
$78,084 and the S&P 500 have seen declines of 10% and 8%, respectively. This demonstrates the platform’s sensitivity to overall macroeconomic signals. Although there has been some recovery after the significant drop in 2022, the effects of volatile markets are evident.
The report also indicates revisions in revenue and earnings forecasts for the periods of 2025 and 2026, with the target price for Coinbase shares being lowered from $388 to $279. These predictions are based on the expectation that individual investor participation will decrease during uncertain times.
Nonetheless, Coinbase’s market share in U.S. spot cryptocurrency trading stands out. The company held 69% of the spot trading volume in the U.S. as of February, providing a significant advantage over competitors. Should uncertainties diminish, this position could support the platform’s resilience.
Analysts suggest that despite short-term challenges, Coinbase could gain value in the long run thanks to its industry leadership. If political uncertainties ease, the company’s strong fundamentals in tokenization and payment solutions could yield positive outcomes in the long term.
