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In the second week of October, a prominent figure in the crypto market known as “Capo of Crypto” suggested that the recent sharp decline might be just the beginning. Gaining fame for accurately predicting the major crash of 2022, this anonymous investor used the term “pre-black swan event” in an analysis shared on October 11. According to Capo, there has been “historical capitulation” in altcoins, although some major projects have yet to fully complete their “liquidation process.”
Other Analysts Share Similar Concerns
Despite Bitcoin (BTC) 
$101,765 remaining above $100,000, Capo argues for a “genuine correction,” suggesting prices should drop to the $60,000-70,000 range. This situation indicates that the downward risk in the crypto market remains substantial. Capo’s observations align with warnings from other analysts. For instance, popular analyst Michaël van de Poppe indicated that a significant wave of panic could ensue if Bitcoin falls below $95,000. Meanwhile, some market experts view these downturns as a “buying opportunity” for long-term investors.
Trump’s Tariff Announcement Triggers Crisis
Capo’s warning followed intense global market volatility. Former U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 100% tariff on China sent ripples across markets, prompting investors to shy away from risks. In the wake of this development, Bitcoin futures fell to $102,000, while spot market prices briefly dipped below $110,000. Leading altcoins such as Ethereum (ETH) 
$3,417, Solana 
$154 (SOL), XRP, and Dogecoin 
$0.170707 (DOGE) experienced declines of 15% to 30%.
Data from provider CoinGlass showed that more than $7 billion in leveraged long positions were liquidated within hours. Trump shared on his Truth Social account that China plans to impose “extensive export restrictions on nearly all products” beginning November 2025, raising fears of renewed global trade wars.
Consequently, the recent selling pressure in the crypto market stems from both macroeconomic uncertainties and shifts in investor psychology. Historically, “black swan” events have preceded sustained periods of growth following significant declines. However, the current scenario, marked by high uncertainties, necessitates cautiousness from investors. The trajectory of U.S.-China trade tensions emerges as the most critical factor in determining the market’s direction.
