El Salvador President Nayib Bukele’s Bitcoin 
$75,013 advisor and a prominent cryptocurrency advocate, Max Keiser, declared on his X account that Bitcoin would soon experience a “supply shock.” Keiser emphasized this claim with a rocket emoji, stating, “I’ve done the math; the supply shock is inevitable.” This assertion is based on the fact that nearly 20 million of the total 21 million limited Bitcoin supply has already been mined. A similar warning was also shared by Samson Mow, CEO of JAN3, at the beginning of 2024 with the anticipated approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs. Keiser’s statement has resonated widely across the Bitcoin community.
Keiser’s Striking Bitcoin Supply Shock Prediction
Keiser’s remarks have brought the long-discussed issue of limited Bitcoin supply back into the limelight. The protocol coded by Satoshi Nakamoto fixes the total supply at 21 million BTC, with nearly 20 million already in circulation today. Keiser believes that if demand remains strong, the rapidly diminishing remaining amount could significantly drive prices upward.
Experts also view the upcoming April 20, 2024, fourth block reward halving as a critical inflection point, reducing the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. The next block reward halving in 2028 will again cut new BTC production by 50%. Keiser and Mow argue that this mechanism will decrease the selling pressure from miners, restrict fresh supply to the market, and trigger the “supply shock.”
ETFs Bolstering Bitcoin Demand
Samson Mow predicts an unprecedented demand-side squeeze as well. He believes that approved spot Bitcoin ETFs, notably BlackRock’s iShares IBIT fund, have already pulled billions of dollars worth of Bitcoin into custodial accounts over twelve months, thus reducing liquidity on exchanges. If this trend continues, the growing institutional demand against declining daily production will exert dual pressure on bitcoin prices.
Institutional firms are also staying proactive. Michael Saylor’s strategy firm, with over half a million BTC in reserves, is the second-largest Bitcoin investor after BlackRock. Japanese-based Metaplanet and Anthony Pompliano’s new venture, ProCap BTC, are continually purchasing Bitcoin. Experts highlight that these treasury management strategies combined with ETF inflows are setting the stage for the “supply shock” Keiser predicts.
These developments in institutional strategies and market dynamics contribute significantly to the potential imminent supply shock scenario projected by Keiser. As more institutions acquire and hold Bitcoin for the long term, the pressure on existing supplies amplifies, enhancing the narratives around scarcity and value proposition.
