The new week has kicked off, and September is proving to be a challenging month for cryptocurrencies. While the markets are in a better state than yesterday, Bitcoin 
$75,023 has yet to regain the $112,500 mark. With gold extending its historic rally and Japanese long-term government bonds dropping due to Ishiba’s resignation, expectations for monetary policy easing have increased.
New Week in Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin has made a relatively positive start. China’s export growth figures have been released, highlighting a decrease in US shipments. China’s export growth has hit a six-month low. Nevertheless, by increasing exports to other countries, Beijing achieved a record trade surplus of $1.2 trillion, indicating it has successfully positioned itself as a viable alternative to the US.
Today, the NY Fed will release inflation expectations, and it wouldn’t be surprising if Trump announces new sanctions on Russia and China. It’s inflation week, and last week’s employment figures have solidified expectations for interest rate cuts.
QCP Capital Comments
Recently, QCP Capital analysts highlighted that discussions on the Fed’s independence will be a focal point for September. Sharing a new report a few hours ago, they warned of alerts on the employment front. The analysts noted that the 53-week employment growth ended with Friday’s data, and confirmed the poor figures from early June, increasing expectations for interest rate cuts.
“Two-year US Treasury yields are at the lowest levels of the year, as the market anticipates a 72 basis points rate cut for the remainder of the year.
However, the risk appetite arising from Fed’s rate cut expectations hasn’t translated to the cryptocurrency market. Despite the rebound in stocks and gold reaching new highs, the cryptocurrency market maintained relatively flat last week.
In fact, the crypto market might interpret this relatively flat price movement as bearish since Risk Reversals show increasing bids for Put options, especially for September. Conversely, some might argue this consolidation reflects the resilience of cryptocurrencies: BTC continues to trade above $110,000 despite Strategy’s removal from the S&P500 last Friday, and ETH remains above $4,250 despite five consecutive days of spot ETF outflows.”
Why aren’t cryptocurrencies rising? The answer, as explained, is caution towards the inflation report. Investors believe that if the Fed sees an increase above 0.3% monthly, it may struggle with rate cuts, awaiting this report before being convinced of a rate-cutting trajectory.
“However, even if there’s a temporary spike due to tariffs, given the current economic situation, it’s unlikely Trump will escalate trade tensions further. Therefore, apart from sudden reactions to this week’s data, cryptocurrencies appear to have solid support with no significant catalyst on the horizon.”
