When former President Trump predicted a decline in inflation, few paid attention. Similarly, when he mentioned tariffs would not have inflationary effects, it was largely disregarded. However, the Federal Reserve members observed that tariffs were not significantly inflationary, leading to limited interest rate cuts. As of today, Trump’s assertions have proven correct, and cryptocurrencies are on the rise.
Rising Cryptocurrency Values
Following inflation figures coming in significantly below expectations, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) 
$89,309 surged past $89,000. While it’s too early to celebrate, these figures turn out to be quite favorable for cryptocurrencies. But why is it premature to rejoice? Firstly, with Japan expected to increase interest rates, risk markets remain under the influence of carry trade debates. In summary, the situation is as follows:
- Japan’s expected interest rate hike will escalate carry trade discussions, challenging risk markets.
- BTC remains below the support line of the bear flag, opening technical tests below $80,000 due to a strong rejection at $94,000.
- Despite inflation being significantly below expectations, Core Inflation remains at March 2025 levels, indicating only a halt in the rise. As of January 2021, inflation was at 1.4%, and although approaching 2% currently, it’s persisted above the 2% target for four years.
- In January, MSCI will classify crypto reserve companies’ stocks as funds, which could be disastrous for companies like Strategy and BitMine.
- The Supreme Court is likely to rule against Trump regarding tariffs in January. This scenario not only exacerbates uncertainty and fear but also suggests that all the chaos experienced throughout 2025 might have been in vain.
Moreover, ongoing fears and risk aversion are wrapping the markets today due to potential negative developments in the future. However, after tomorrow’s 07:30 a.m. announcement of Japan’s interest rate decision, the market may begin evaluating crypto-favorable details in employment and inflation reports. Hence, seeing a temporary upward momentum as we move towards the year’s end wouldn’t be surprising.
Details of the U.S. Inflation Report
Below are the core inflation reports over the last five years. Due to a government shutdown, one report is missing, and inflation, which peaked at 6.6% in 2022, has finally reached its lowest level of the year. However, it still remains far from the early 2021 lows and the Fed’s 2% target.
In November 2025, inflation fell to 2.6%, breaking below the year’s lowest level of 2.8%, reaching its lowest point since March 2021. The expectation of 3% resulted in a surprising situation favorable to crypto markets. The Bureau of Labor Statistics didn’t gather data for October 2025 due to a 43-day government shutdown.
“Excluding food and energy, the seasonally adjusted index increased by 0.2% over the two months ending in November. From September to November, the shelter index increased by 0.2%. During the same two-month period, the energy index rose by 1.1%, and the food index by 0.1%. Other indexes that saw increases during the period ending in November include household furnishings, operations, communication, and personal care. Conversely, lodging away from home, recreation, and apparel indexes saw declines in the same period. The all-items index increased by 3.0% over the 12 months ending in September, followed by a 2.7% increase over the 12 months ending in November. Excluding food and energy, all items index rose by 2.6% in the last 12 months. The energy index rose by 4.2% over the 12 months ending in November. The food index increased by 2.6% over the past year.”
