Bitcoin is currently testing a key technical level, with market analysts watching closely for a breakout that could lead to new all-time highs. According to onchain analytics provider CryptoQuant, the world’s largest cryptocurrency may continue its upward trajectory if it can decisively move above the 20-month simple moving average (SMA), which stands at $87,165 as of October 16.
20-month moving average marks vital inflection frontier
The 20-month SMA serves as an essential benchmark for Bitcoin traders. This moving average forms the core of CryptoQuant’s market cycle indicators, which use it to help define Bitcoin’s current place within its broader cycle. The popular Bollinger Bands metric also uses the 20-month SMA as a baseline, adding standard deviation-based bands above and below it to map out potential price zones.
At present, the upper and lower Bollinger Bands sit at $121,640 and $52,694, respectively. CryptoQuant’s framework refers to the area between the lower band and the SMA as an “accumulation base,” where long-term investors may seek value. The SMA itself is described as the “inflection frontier,” representing a point that previously marked investor capitulation when Bitcoin slipped below it in December 2025.
With Bitcoin’s price now rallying toward this crucial frontier from below, historical charts show that previous successful breakouts at this level have led to sharp rallies and fresh market highs.
Just over a year after the all-time high of $124,709 on October 6, 2025, the market has concluded its ‘reset’, and is now positioned for renewed upward momentum, CryptoQuant contributor GugaOnChain observed in a recent post.
The indicator’s upper band currently sits just under Bitcoin’s latest all-time high of $126,200, which was set in October 2025. Despite hesitation among retail traders who may view $82,442 as a likely market top, onchain signals suggest that the current rally may merely be an early stage.
While retail fears the current $82,442, thinking it’s the ‘top,’ the on-chain indicator BTC: Market Cycle Signals reveals that we are just warming up, further explained GugaOnChain, referencing key price support.
Analysts noted that the 20-month SMA is close to Bitcoin’s 2026 opening price of $87,490, adding further weight to its role as a critical resistance level. Order book data from major exchanges highlights significant ask liquidity concentrated around the same zone, underlining its importance for traders.
Onchain signals bolster bull market outlook
CryptoQuant, an analytics company specializing in blockchain and digital assets, maintains its constructive stance on Bitcoin’s ongoing market cycle, even as broader financial conditions remain volatile. Contributors noted that, despite headwinds for risk assets, several onchain metrics show signs of strengthening bullish sentiment as October draws to a close.
XWIN Research Japan, a contributor to CryptoQuant, pointed to three specific onchain data points supporting this cautious optimism. These included profitability measures and investor behavior statistics that suggest market momentum could improve toward the end of the month.
In August, CryptoQuant Chief Executive Ki Young Ju publicly stated that Bitcoin’s bear market phase had ended, referencing their bull-bear market cycle indicator. This tool compiles data from several profitability and valuation metrics to assess macro trends. The current reading stands at 0.186, rising sharply from 0.042 in August, indicating a notable increase in positive momentum.
Should Bitcoin break through the $87,165 resistance, technical analysts expect the price to approach new record highs if buying pressure continues.
Mini dictionary: Bollinger Bands, a technical analysis tool that places bands above and below a moving average based on price volatility, helping traders identify potential overbought or oversold conditions.
| Metric | Current Level | Previous Level | All-Time High Reference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20-month SMA | $87,165 | – | – |
| Upper Bollinger Band | $121,640 | – | $126,200 (Oct 2025) |
| Lower Bollinger Band | $52,694 | – | – |
| Bull-bear market cycle indicator | 0.186 | 0.042 (Aug) | – |
