Bitcoin has entered a critical phase after enduring a lengthy downward trend, with recent macroeconomic data and on-chain indicators fueling hopes of a robust rebound. Market commentators increasingly suggest that the cryptocurrency could be heading for a sustained recovery lasting several months, citing a convergence of supportive signals on various fronts.
US Manufacturing Index Rise Sparks Market Optimism
The latest US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), signaled consecutive growth in February 2026—the second month in a row. The PMI was measured at 52.4%, marking a positive shift after three years of contraction. This figure surpassed market expectations and is seen as an encouraging sign for investors’ risk appetite, which could, in turn, direct fresh capital towards the Bitcoin market.
Analyst Joe Consorti has drawn attention to the historical correlation between this manufacturing index and Bitcoin’s price cycles. He notes that the current set of data is laying the groundwork for a possible trend reversal.
Joe Consorti highlights that similar upticks in this index in past cycles have often coincided with the early stages of Bitcoin upswings.
Inter-Exchange Flow Indicator Reveals Shifting Market Sentiment
Crypto analytics platform CryptoQuant has developed the Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) indicator, which monitors Bitcoin movements between spot and derivative exchanges. According to market analyst CW, the IFP is on the verge of a “golden cross”—a technical signal closely watched by traders for signs of potential bull markets.
When large sums of Bitcoin move to derivative exchanges, the market typically leans bullish, with traders opening more long positions. Conversely, significant transfers from derivatives back to spot exchanges often point to bearish sentiment and a period when investors prioritize risk management over speculation.
CW predicts that the IFP is approaching a “golden cross,” adding that, after a year-long corrective phase, Bitcoin may be ready to climb again.
Five Consecutive Monthly Declines Echo Past Market Bottoms
In February 2026, Bitcoin closed its fifth straight month in the red. A similar losing streak occurred only once before, during 2018–2019, when the cryptocurrency logged six consecutive monthly declines. Back then, the subsequent five months saw prices surge by over 300%.
The current string of five monthly drops is fueling speculation that selling activity may be reaching exhaustion. Historical trends suggest that prolonged losing streaks are often followed by pronounced rebounds, as the market shifts from a phase of capitulation to renewed buying interest.
Commentator Satoshi Flipper notes that the toughest part may be over after five or six consecutive red months, and sees greater potential for a positive move ahead.
Supporting this view, a recent report by BeInCrypto concludes that Bitcoin may have entered a bottoming region. Still, some analysts maintain there is a possibility of further declines before a full turnaround. Price movements in March are expected to hinge on whether the $62,300 support holds or the $79,000 resistance is breached, setting the tone for Bitcoin’s medium-term outlook.
