Ethereum’s recent surge encountered resistance at $2,800, halting further gains after an 8.5% rally over the past month. Although ETH briefly reached this level, it pulled back, leaving traders focusing on whether the cryptocurrency can reclaim this short-term threshold. The $2,800 mark represented the breakout point from a bullish flag formation, and its recapture remains crucial for momentum traders.
ETF inflows provide institutional demand
Massive inflows into US spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds have been a significant driver behind ETH’s latest move. US spot Ether ETFs recorded six consecutive days of net inflows, totaling $834 million, highlighting robust investor demand for exposure to ETH. While sustained ETF investments can reveal continued institutional interest, they do not guarantee upward price action.
In addition, on-chain signals may play a key role in shaping trader expectations. Two metrics that have preceded previous Ethereum rallies include the average trading volumes and the 365-day market-value-to-realized-value (MVRV) ratio. Ethereum’s seven-day and 30-day moving averages for trading volume have touched for the first time since November 2025. Historically, bullish crossovers between these averages have come before strong moves higher, but at present, only the touching has occurred without a confirmed crossover.
Four previous instances where the 365-day MVRV ratio moved above zero preceded bullish cycles, including several periods where ETH climbed to $4,000 or more. While this trend supports a positive outlook, analysts caution that the small number of data points limits its reliability as a predictive signal.
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Ethereum maintains technical strength above support
Ethereum currently trades near $2,652, keeping its position above three closely watched exponential moving averages: the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs, which lie between approximately $2,260 and $2,430. This technical stance points to a continued recovery trend for ETH, even as momentum indicators show some slowdown.
The relative strength index for Ethereum stands at 58, suggesting an uptrend without entering overbought territory. Meanwhile, the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator has turned slightly negative, reflecting a loss in near-term momentum.
Despite this, as long as ETH trades above its main moving averages, analysts see the buyers maintaining an advantage. A single negative MACD reading does not signal a reversal if key support levels hold. Immediate support is identified around $2,500, followed by the 50-day EMA near $2,425 and the 100-day and 200-day EMAs just above $2,259. A breakdown below these levels could undermine the technical setup and bring the $2,000 level into focus. As deeper support, $1,385 is noted as a structural level based on previous price action.
Upside targets and near-term levels
On the upside, traders are watching for a sustained break above $3,000, which could reinforce the medium-term uptrend for Ethereum. Until that psychological resistance is surpassed, the coin’s ability to stay above $2,500 and regain momentum remains crucial for short-term market sentiment.
Buyers continue to hold an edge while Ethereum trades above its primary moving averages, but clearer bullish signals are needed for any meaningful rally beyond current resistance levels.
