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Bitcoin’s (BTC) price, despite the recent Nvidia report, hasn’t initiated a significant surge. Even though it has bounced back from its lows, the likelihood of an interest rate cut in December has dwindled significantly, keeping BTC just below the crucial $92,000 mark. Why do market analysts believe this cycle is distinct from the others?
Crypto Cycle Insights
Renowned figures like Ki Young Ju argue that the current cryptocurrency cycle differs remarkably from its predecessors. A closer look at the data supports their claims. Though several metrics signaled the end of bull markets earlier this year, sticking to historical data has misled analysts.
Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, succinctly explains the uniqueness of this cycle in three points:
- 2018: Whales are selling, with no new capital influx.
- 2022: Whales are selling, with no new capital influx.
- 2025: Whales are selling, but there’s new capital inflow.
A user questioned why whales believe they’ve reached the peak and are selling off. If the cycle hasn’t ended, why are they leaving the game? Do Core 30 discussions indicate more significant structural issues for Bitcoin 
$90,357.50? Young Ju responded.
“It’s better to assume there’s no special reason for whales to profit, especially with Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. Remember, among the first Bitcoin investors were not just cyberpunk innovators but also criminals.
Although I haven’t analyzed it in detail yet, I suspect some funds holding futures positions for arbitrage suffered losses during the last significant liquidation event and are now compelled to sell some BTC.”
Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, agreed with his CEO’s assessment.
“People claim the ‘4-year cycle’ has ended because of unmet price expectations.
The ‘4-year cycle’ isn’t about price performance or specific time frames. It’s related to waves of demand/adoption. Each cycle introduces new demand/capital, but demand waves eventually recede, forming a cycle.”
December Interest Rate Decision
Cryptocurrencies’ major short-term issue is the increasing likelihood of interest rates remaining unchanged in December. This issue arose particularly from delays in employment reports. As the Fed makes its December interest rate decision, it will lack significant labor reports. This implies a rational scenario where keeping rates steady seems most likely.
The BLS won’t release the October employment report, and the November report is due on December 16. The September JOLTS report is missing too, with the October report expected by December 9. The Fed could potentially make an informed decision using other metrics for the job markets, but this would be surprising.
