This evening at 10:00 PM Turkish time, the Federal Reserve is set to announce its first interest rate decision of the year. Following three rate cuts in the last quarter of the previous year due to declining employment, the bank acted to mitigate risks. While today’s decision is largely anticipated, there are still several important details to pay attention to.
28 January Fed Interest Rate Decision
Market expectations and data suggest that the interest rates will remain unchanged tonight. This marks the beginning of a “pause period” in the rate cuts observed throughout much of last year. After the elections, the Fed had paused rate cuts, closely monitoring each meeting with an eye on when the reductions might resume.
Since today’s meeting signifies the restart of the pause period, we will eagerly follow which meeting during the year might see a resumption of cuts. It is anticipated that there will be no cuts for at least a few meetings. Many analysts predict that cuts could resume towards the end of the year, similar to 2025.
December’s employment data, released this month, was closely monitored due to the unreliability of recent reports amid government shutdowns. This made it the most crucial employment report in the past 4-5 months, yet it did not favor those expecting rate cuts. The unemployment rate decreased, nonfarm employment exceeded expectations, and the “unemployment alarm” that we became accustomed to in the last quarter was silenced. This allows the Federal Reserve to pause rate cuts as of the January 28 meeting, stating, “The three rate cuts in the last quarter were to silence employment alarms, and it appears we have succeeded.”
Bitcoin’s price targets $90,000 ahead of the rate decision. Trump’s statements on devaluing the dollar have helped propel BTC’s rise.
Interest Rate Forecasts for 2026
It is highly unlikely that the Fed will cut interest rates today. However, we will closely monitor Powell’s tone and any changes in the decision statement. Trump’s recent call for rate cuts remains quite inexplicable amid ongoing discussions on the institution’s independence. So, what are the expectations for upcoming meetings?
