A new study from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland indicates that presenting individuals with historical Bitcoin performance data can meaningfully influence their cryptocurrency investment attitudes and actual purchasing behavior.
Study methods and key results
Researchers Michael Weber, Bernardo Candia, Olivier Coibion, and Yuriy Gorodnichenko released the findings on July 14, 2026. The study analyzed survey responses from up to 25,000 US households in each round, making the dataset one of the largest of its kind for cryptocurrency markets.
During the second quarter of 2025, the research team conducted a randomized trial. Participants were provided with information about various assets, including Bitcoin, the S&P 500, GameStop stock, or inflation forecasts. When exposed to Bitcoin’s trailing 12-month gain of 14.3%, respondents increased their preferred allocation to cryptocurrency by around 2 percentage points. This represented a jump of 47% relative to the control group’s baseline desired allocation of 4.3%.
Actual purchases confirmed this shift in preferences. Households receiving the Bitcoin performance data raised their real cryptocurrency acquisitions by about 2.5 percentage points.
ETH
SOL
BSC
ROBINHOOD
USDT
AAPL| Before Info | After Bitcoin Data | |
|---|---|---|
| Preferred Crypto Allocation | 4.3% | 6.3% |
| Crypto Acquisition Rate | 11% | ~13.5% |
Prior to receiving this information, roughly 11% of all respondents owned cryptocurrency. The treatment increased the probability of purchasing crypto by an estimated 23%. The impact was strongest among those who previously cited lack of information as their reason for not owning cryptocurrency.
In contrast, participants who already had negative perceptions of cryptocurrencies showed little or no change in behavior after being introduced to the performance data.
Expectations and demographic differences
The research also identified a major gap between cryptocurrency owners and non-owners regarding future return expectations. In 2021, holders who provided forecasts anticipated an average annual gain of 22%, whereas non-holders expected only 7%.
Both groups showed uncertainty about their projections: 87% of non-holders and 54% of holders stated they could not estimate crypto returns.
By 2025, average expectations cooled off for both groups. Owners predicted annual returns of 13.8%, while non-owners projected 4.7%.
Return expectations emerged as a stronger predictor for crypto ownership than typical demographic metrics such as age, income, or gender. Each additional percentage point in expected returns raised the likelihood of owning cryptocurrency by 0.8 percentage points. This marks a departure from trends seen in traditional asset classes, where factors like age and wealth usually play a larger role.
Mini dictionary: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, one of the 12 regional Reserve Banks in the US central banking system, is responsible for monetary policy research and economic analysis relevant to its district.
Market dynamics and spending behavior
Authors of the study discussed how cycles of price appreciation can drive further investment and possibly create feedback loops in crypto markets. They observed that positive returns attracted additional market participants, which could in turn push prices higher.
“Positive returns attract new participants, which raises the price further,” the researchers wrote. They described this cycle as a theoretical bubble mechanism rather than a certain outcome.
Beyond investment trends, the researchers also looked at whether Bitcoin appreciation impacts household purchasing decisions. A doubling in Bitcoin’s value increased the likelihood that a fully exposed household would buy a durable good—such as a computer or a major appliance—by approximately 1.4 percentage points, or around a 7% rise in probability.
Regular household expenses were largely unaffected by crypto gains. The team suggested that households may view crypto profits as temporary windfalls, similar to a lottery win, rather than as long-term increases in wealth.
Overall, the study concluded that much of cryptocurrency’s market volatility can be traced not just to fundamental factors but also to divergent investor expectations and frequent shifts in information.
