Bitcoin is currently trading near $63,780, with on-chain data painting a picture reminiscent of previous bear markets. Long-term investors have an average entry cost of $49,500, while short-term holders are in at an average of $72,500. According to analysts, the considerable gap between these two levels may signify that the current cycle is not yet over.
Why do LTH and STH metrics matter?
On-chain analyst Darkfost highlighted that Bitcoin’s cyclical structure has remained intact so far, and the current bear market is not evolving much differently from past cycles. In previous downturns, long-term holders came under severe pressure, which was reflected in the narrowing of the cost difference between long- and short-term investors.
Mini glossary: The realized price metric reflects the average acquisition cost of coins moved on-chain. LTH refers to long-term holders, while STH stands for investors who have held assets for a shorter period.
Darkfost emphasized that Bitcoin’s cyclical pattern has so far persisted, suggesting that this bear market may unfold similarly to prior periods.
Current data indicates a still-wide gap between these groups. The $49,500 average cost of long-term holders points to lower entry levels achieved during accumulation phases. In contrast, short-term holders have an average purchase price of $72,500, suggesting they bought in higher and may be more vulnerable to price pressure.
According to Darkfost, in previous cycles the cost basis of short-term holders eventually dropped below that of long-term holders. After these levels crossed, the market often endured several months of weakness. However, in the current cycle, such a crossover has not yet occurred.
Technical analysis warns of deeper BTC drops
In a separate analysis, Crypto Lens suggested that Bitcoin’s recent rise up to $66,000 could be a bull trap within a broader downtrend. Crypto Lens is known for sharing technical and cyclical market insights on the crypto sector.
Crypto Lens argued that the latest move up to $66,000 represents a temporary recovery, with the market likely positioned in the middle of the current bear cycle.
According to this view, after rising from $63,000 to $66,000, the price could head down to the $53,000 and $48,000 levels. In a more pessimistic scenario, Bitcoin might fall to $43,000 and possibly $32,000. Three distinct scenarios were presented: a retreat to $48,000 within days, a drop to $43,000 in August, or in the harshest case, a fall to $32,000 in September.
Latest price and trading volume data
As of reporting, CoinGecko data shows Bitcoin trading at $63,781.20. The asset is up 0.53% over the last 24 hours and 5% in the past week. Trading volume stands at $23.5 billion.
Despite recent price strength, both analyses caution investors to remain vigilant as the second half of the year approaches. The ongoing difference between long- and short-term investor costs continues to be a key indicator closely watched for signals on market direction.
