Gold prices hovered around $4,390 in volatile trading, as the precious metal encountered resistance after a breakout, according to TradingView data at 14:03 UTC. Throughout the 24-hour period, the XAUUSD contract ranged from session lows near $4,340 to intraday highs at approximately $4,430.
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A technical analysis by trader professorcrypto, shared on X, highlighted that the XAUUSD perpetual contract surged to nearly $4,398, driven by a breakout above a compressed triangle chart pattern. This formation was characterized by declining support levels and rising trendlines, often regarded as a sign of increasing volatility.
Following this move, buyers managed to propel the contract past a significant support zone at $4,100, then above the key level of $4,202.90. The price quickly climbed into the resistance band between $4,370 and $4,447.94, but later retreated just before the session’s close. A brief sell-off below $4,448 marked notable resistance as upward momentum weakened.
Substantial green price candles pushed the contract above $4,100, with the move crossing the highlighted value of $4,202.90 before reaching within the higher bracket of its resistance band, around $4,370 to $4,447.94.
Major support levels for gold remain at $4,202.90 and $4,047.74, which could underpin prices if sellers take further control.
| Level | Price Range |
|---|---|
| Resistance Zone | $4,400 to $4,448 |
| Major Support 1 | $4,202.90 |
| Major Support 2 | $4,047.74 |
China’s reserve shift influences gold’s long-term context
Market observers have pointed to China’s evolving reserve allocation for context regarding gold’s sustained rally. Macro Alpha, a financial commentator, shared data showing China reduced its US securities exposure from a record high of nearly 30% in June 2011 to 7.3% in December 2025. During the same period, the country’s gold holdings grew sharply, rising from about $40 billion in 2019 to an estimated $683 billion by November 2025.
This trend reflects China’s response to global economic shifts, prompting it to strengthen its position in gold as an alternative reserve asset. It is important to note that growth in the reported value of gold reserves can result from either new purchases or appreciation in bullion prices.
China’s gold reserves remained relatively stable until 2019, before increasing moderately and then surging exponentially after 2022, reaching $683 billion by late 2025 as US Treasury exposure dropped to record lows in the national portfolio.
The chart released by Macro Alpha depicts an inverse relationship between China’s gold accumulate and its US securities holdings—offering macroeconomic insight but not directly determining short-term gold price movements.
Mini dictionary: Macro Alpha, an independent financial analysis account focused on macroeconomic trends and reserve management, is known for publishing in-depth data visualizations and market commentary on platforms such as X.
| Metric | June 2011 | 2019 | Nov 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| China’s US Securities Share | 30% | N/A | 7.3% |
| China’s Gold Holdings | N/A | $40B | $683B |
Intraday momentum fades at $4,384
TradingView data recorded gold at $4,383.62 at 14:03 UTC, following a brief early surge above $4,420. After this high, prices saw a steady decline, touching the day’s lower boundary near $4,340 during early trading hours.
Technical indicators pointed to weakening momentum. The Chaikin money flow indicator on the XAUUSD CFD reflected a 0.20 reading below zero, typically suggesting that sellers are gaining the upper hand as session liquidity subsides. As the New York session began, buyers managed to lift the price close to $4,400, before inflows faded and the price dipped back toward $4,383.
