In 2025, the cryptocurrency markets presented a challenging scenario for investors, with predictions about Bitcoin’s future regaining significant attention. According to Jan3’s founder, Samson Mow, the past 12 months should be viewed as a bear market, suggesting that Bitcoin may be on the brink of a prolonged bull run that could extend until 2035. However, this view is not universally accepted within the sector; some analysts argue that 2026 might usher in a new bearish cycle.
2025: Bear or the Start of a Long Bull Cycle?
Samson Mow made a remarkable statement on the X platform, declaring “2025 was a bear market” and stating that Bitcoin is preparing for a “bull run that could last a decade.” This perspective is supported by well-known analyst PlanC, who emphasized the cyclical nature of current declines by saying, “Those who endured the 2025 bear market have endured the worst.”
Currently, Bitcoin seems close to closing the year in the red. According to CoinMarketCap data, Bitcoin has depreciated by 8.98% since the beginning of the year and is trading at around $87,210. As PlanC noted, two consecutive red yearly candles have never been seen in Bitcoin’s history, making some investors more inclined to interpret the present declines as long-term buying opportunities.
On the other hand, the general market sentiment remains extremely cautious. As of December 26, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has dropped to 20, staying in the “extreme fear” zone for over two weeks. This scenario clearly indicates that investors are avoiding taking risks in the short term.
Dark Scenarios for 2026 and Opposing Views
The expectations for 2026 in the sector vary significantly. Veteran trader Peter Brandt forecasts that Bitcoin could plummet to $60,000 by the third quarter of 2026. Meanwhile, Fidelity’s global macro research director Jurrien Timmer defines 2026 as a “rest year” for Bitcoin, considering $65,000 as a likely level.
Conversely, the optimistic camp remains strong. Strategy CEO Phong Le argues that whilst price and sentiment might decrease in 2025, Bitcoin’s fundamental dynamics remain robust. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan suggests that 2026 will be another year of rise for Bitcoin.
Adding to these discussions, there has been a notable resurgence in institutional entries towards spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States recently. Particularly, the expansion of some major portfolios in December highlights the continuing vitality of long-term expectations as a noteworthy news topic.
In conclusion, the outlook for Bitcoin is not clear; fear and uncertainty dominate the short term, while a compelling narrative continues to unfold in the long term. The question of whether 2025 genuinely was a bear market or the silent start of a significant bull run will probably become more evident in a few years. However, the strong arguments supporting both optimistic and pessimistic scenarios necessitate investors taking risk management more seriously than ever before.
