Fidelity Digital Assets, Bitcoin‘s mid-term outlook after the first quarter has been revised from positive to neutral, citing various data suggesting Bitcoin is no longer considered cheap due to potential selling pressure. Fidelity Digital Assets, in its latest Signals report published on April 22, showed hashrate data similar to the price-earnings ratio used in stocks.
What’s Expected for Bitcoin?
By revising Bitcoin’s mid-term outlook to neutral, Fidelity indicated that Bitcoin is now trading at a fair value. Other data contributing to this neutral view include increased selling pressure from long-term holders, 99% of addresses being in profit, which could also encourage selling.
Other on-chain metrics supporting the firm’s neutral mid-term revision include the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) ratio and the MVRV Z-Score, which is used to assess when Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued.
However, the investment firm maintained a short-term positive outlook for Bitcoin, stating there is potential for short-term gains by the end of the first quarter of 2024, but added that there are no extreme indicators generally emerging. The company noted that asset trade transactions remained above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages throughout the first quarter, indicating rising price levels above the golden cross on the Bitcoin chart.
Notable Data
The firm’s research director Chris Kuiper, in a post published on X on April 23, explained that on-chain indicators are now clearly above the lowest or extreme bottom levels previously observed. The report also touched on Bitcoin’s realized price, a data point aimed at capturing the average cost basis of all coin holders. The realized price was around $28,000 at the end of the first quarter and has maintained its support position since mid-January.
Additionally, on-chain data showed that accumulation by small investors continued; the number of addresses holding Bitcoin worth $1,000 or more increased by 20% since the beginning of the year, reaching all-time highs.
