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We frequently share the current market outlooks from analysis companies, offering their perspectives to you. Reading the markets through different lenses and using this to refine your own view can be beneficial. Analysts cannot predict the future, but they can help you see details of the current situation that you might miss. So, what did the QCP Analysts highlight in their latest assessments?
Expert Market Commentary
Since their last assessment on January 24, the markets have significantly rebounded. The price of Bitcoin has risen from $38,500 to over $44,700, and ETH is now above $2,420, following positive news yesterday. QCP Analysts present two reasons for the recent recovery.
Decrease in GBTC Outflows
Daily GBTC outflows were around $500-600 million, and this supply was about to exceed the demand that other ETFs could meet. Fortunately, the volume of GBTC sales has weakened and fallen to the $100-200 million range. Considering all ETFs, the net positive inflow is promising.
“As a side note, we observed some price peculiarities around spot ETF prices. Prices tend to rise between 3-4 PM EST. This is likely due to BlackRock ETF (IBIT) using a 1-hour observation window around this time to calculate the ETF’s Net Asset Value (NAV), and participants involved in creating ETF units hedge their risks during this window. Conversely, since GBTC uses a price fixing at 4 PM EST, we often see downward pressure on the price after 4 PM EST; this means market makers need to sell around and after this time.”
U.S. Stocks
Despite a hawkish Fed (with Powell rejecting any cuts in March) and strong February NFP numbers (actual 353,000 vs. expected 180,000), leading to rising U.S. bonds, strong earnings from companies like NVDA and META have helped the market recover. We had discussed the recovery trend in stocks based on earnings reports last week.
“Any drop in stock prices is likely to continue being bought by under-allocated investors chasing returns. This bullish sentiment may lead BTC and ETH to follow narratives of the BTC halving and ETH spot ETF. We’ve seen strong interest in accumulators that allow investors to buy BTC or ETH at a significant discount from the current spot price. This is a great way to build long positions in anticipation of a rise towards the end of the year. BTC and ETH futures are also becoming attractive again.”
