We mentioned that September is consistently a period of loss, and it demoralized investors in line with its historical performance. Cryptocurrencies and even the US stock markets experienced declines in September. Thus, September is seen as a buying period for risk markets. It is not yet known if the real bottom has been seen, but everyone is hopeful for October.
Uptober and Cryptocurrencies
As much as September has a reputation as a nightmare period, October and beyond are filled with rises. Historical data confirms this. For roughly 100 years, September has brought declines for the S&P 500. Continuous declines have been seen over the last 94 years. Recent historical data also confirms that Bitcoin 
$107,226 has fallen during 8 Septembers since 2013.
Known by the username Ali_charts, a popular cryptocurrency analyst recently shared the above chart and wrote the following.
“Although September has historically been a tough month for Bitcoin, remember that October is just around the corner. This month, often referred to as ‘Uptober,’ is known as one of the best months for Bitcoin.”
In the last 10 years, BTC has experienced an average decline of 5% in September. Jake Ostrovskis, an OTC trader at Wintermute, is a bit more cautious.
“While the market likes to focus on the ‘September Effect’ given historical performance, the small sample size makes it difficult to use as a leading indicator.”
Nevertheless, since the S&P 500 data has confirmed this for a sufficiently long time, we can be sure of the reality of the “September effect” for risk assets. Zach Pandl from Grayscale believes that a significant portion of investors will rally in October due to its historical performance success.
Can Bitcoin Drop by 50%?
Altcoin Sherpa shared an evaluation while this article was being prepared, examining periods of 50% or more losses within the cycle. We saw this in 2019 and 2021. The following chart is from 2019, and the cryptocurrency analyst seems to be worried about a similar scenario these days.
“There have been a few instances where we experienced a 50% drop for BTC without a full bear market. Such cases occurred in 2019 and 2021.
In fact, 2019 was almost like a cycle in itself: a move from 3k to 14k, then a drop to 6k, and then a rise again. I need to examine this further.”
If BTC fails to initiate the expected turnaround in October and does not set a new peak far from the ATH level, these are likely to be some of the things we will discuss.
