The price of Bitcoin is currently at $25,841 and investors are concerned about another prolonged period of low volatility. The lack of interest in the markets has kept volumes stuck below $35 billion for a long time. In the midst of one of the longest bear markets, everyone is now asking when prices will rise.
The price of Bitcoin (BTC) had a volatile week and formed long wicks on both sides of the weekly candlestick. The weekly timeframe technical analysis indicates several signs of a decline. First, the BTC price fell from the 231-day rising support line in August. This priority clearly shows that the upward trend is in clear danger. Considering historical data, it would not be surprising if the BTC price makes a strong bottom before the halving.
RSI dropped below 50 in August. This is a bearish sign, and RSI, which is protected by the rising support line, fell below this region for the first time since the beginning of the year. Therefore, the drop below 50 increases the validity of the break. Therefore, based solely on technical readings, we can say that the Bitcoin decline may not be over yet. Perhaps the fact that altcoins are starting to run deeper into historical lows is also related to this.
Despite the downward price movement, the news is mostly positive. Former Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) chairman Jay Clayton predicted that a Bitcoin ETF will be approved in the near future. But this news is not attracting new investors to the market for now. Local exchanges, including Turkey, have started to gain attention in many countries. For example, BIST is breaking historical records and we are seeing approximately 4 million participations in IPOs. This shows that good news is not enough to attract investors to crypto.
If the BTC price continues to decline, $24,500 will be the first stop for BTC. On the other hand, upward movement can continue towards $30,000.
While the weekly timeframe is in a downward trend, the daily timeframe indicates that an upward movement may occur soon. The main reason for this is the increasing bullish divergence in RSI. When a price decline is accompanied by an increase in momentum, a bullish divergence occurs. This is usually a bullish sign that leads to upward movements. In addition, the divergence took RSI outside the oversold zone, which is another sign that supports the bulls.
If a strong upward period begins in cryptocurrencies, we need to surpass $28,200 after our current region. This confirms the recent bottom. Even if BTC surpasses $50,000 in September, there can be dozens of reasons for it. We seem to be reliving the days of the 2020 PayPal news. Everything is ready for a rise, but we are in the midst of a boring price movement. Maybe next year, we will compare the 2020 PayPal news with the 2023 June BlackRock news and say that’s why the bull came. Maybe none of these will happen. Since cryptocurrencies are high-risk markets, investors need to be prepared for all possibilities.