JPMorgan has revised its outlook for gold, suggesting prices may remain flat in the coming weeks before surging to $4,500 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026. The bank cited weakened demand in key buying channels as the main reason for its updated short-term assessment.
Short-term flat trend in focus
According to forecasts shared by Reuters, JPMorgan expects gold to average $4,300 per ounce in the third quarter of 2026 and rise to $4,500 in the final quarter of the year. The bank maintains that the overall direction for gold remains upward but believes the pace of increase could be more modest than previously anticipated.
In JPMorgan’s assessment, purchasing power has declined in major markets with traditionally robust gold demand. The bank has also highlighted gold’s increasing sensitivity to changes in real interest rates—a key macroeconomic factor that can make or break investor appetite for non-yielding assets like gold.
Glossary: Real interest rate refers to the yield after deducting inflation from the nominal rate. An increase in real rates can squeeze demand for gold, which offers no yield.
Against this backdrop, JPMorgan notes that gold has temporarily lost some of its appeal relative to other investment instruments, which could keep prices range-bound for a period. The bank now characterizes the current situation as a market trading within a defined band.
JPMorgan points out that gold prices are likely to trade sideways in the short term, with more pronounced recovery expected in the second half of 2026.
Long-term bullish outlook remains intact
Despite its more cautious short-term view, JPMorgan maintains an optimistic stance for the medium to long term. The bank identifies three core drivers that could support a continued rise in gold prices through 2027.
At the top of the list is ongoing accumulation of gold reserves by central banks. JPMorgan also expects physical demand for gold to strengthen in the months ahead, adding to positive momentum. Institutional investors seeking portfolio protection by holding gold further complement this view. As one of the United States’ largest banks, JPMorgan’s insights on commodities, forex, and macro markets are closely followed by industry watchers.
Central bank reserve building, anticipated growth in physical demand, and institutional portfolio hedges form the core of JPMorgan’s long-term gold forecast.
Competition with Bitcoin comes into focus
Throughout 2025 and into early 2026, gold and Bitcoin have often been compared as alternative hedges against macroeconomic risks. JPMorgan’s call for subdued gold prices in the short run could encourage some institutional funds to temporarily allocate more capital to digital assets like $BTC.
Even so, the bank expects gold to maintain its role as a safe haven and alternative reserve asset over the long term. While a lackluster near-term performance is possible, JPMorgan believes this does not undermine gold’s function as a proven store of value.
