Two leading U.S. prediction market platforms, Kalshi and Polymarket, have announced new services in crypto derivatives, both racing to launch perpetual futures within days of each other. The moves come as competition intensifies to attract traders seeking alternative markets for exposure to cryptocurrency price moves.
Kalshi and Polymarket target crypto derivatives
Kalshi, which is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), has scheduled its cryptocurrency perpetual futures rollout for April 27 in New York City. The new product, internally codenamed “Timeless,” allows traders to take leveraged positions on Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies without expiry dates. Collateral will initially be limited to U.S. dollars, with plans to introduce stablecoin options in the near future.
Tarek Mansour leads Kalshi as CEO. The company has established itself as an $11 billion platform handling over $100 billion in annualized trading volume. It primarily offers event-based binary contracts but now enters the crypto derivatives arena as its first venture beyond event-focused markets.
Polymarket, Kalshi’s rival, entered the mix just ahead of Kalshi’s announcement with the launch of its own perpetual futures trading. Valued at $9 billion, Polymarket now lets users go long or short on outcome-based prediction contracts around the clock, without waiting for settlement tied to discrete events. Its announcement on X emphasized continuous trading and attempted to capture momentum before Kalshi’s launch date.
Surge in trading volumes and regulatory context
March saw a record 192 million transactions across prediction markets, reflecting rising demand for flexible market exposure. For Kalshi, user-generated data from Dune Analytics tracked crypto trading volumes exceeding $1 billion in a single month for the first time. Polymarket has also surpassed the $1 billion mark in weekly notional volumes during the first quarter of 2026.
Perpetual futures allow holders to speculate on asset price movements without owning underlying tokens, using a funding rate to align contract and spot prices. This marks a shift from event contracts for both companies: Kalshi diversifies its offering beyond binary outcomes, while Polymarket integrates continuous trading into its platform, previously built on event resolution.
Kalshi’s status as a CFTC-regulated operator creates a potential advantage over offshore crypto derivatives providers, especially as regulatory authorities consider bringing U.S. perpetual futures under formal oversight. The current CFTC chair has discussed plans to supervise this product category, and Kalshi expects to add stablecoin collateral for perps in the coming quarter.
Legal spotlight on market operators
Amid these launches, the New York Attorney General Letitia James has filed lawsuits against Coinbase and Gemini, challenging their prediction market operations as unlicensed and allegedly unlawful under state law. The suits allege these platforms enabled trading on event outcomes without proper regulatory approvals and could risk exposing underage users to financial harms.
Kalshi is a U.S.-based prediction market known for its CFTC-compliant trading products, allowing participants to take positions on real-world events. Polymarket is a high-profile blockchain-powered prediction market that facilitates decentralized wagers on outcomes spanning elections, economics, and the crypto sector.
Both companies are now directly competing to shape the next phase in prediction markets, focusing on crypto derivatives to attract new clients and boost trading activity. The regulatory environment and ongoing legal scrutiny remain critical factors as these platforms expand their offerings.
