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The cryptocurrency market has recently entered a volatile phase. Despite a 2.7% decline in the last 24 hours, Bitcoin 
$103,619 continues to hover around the $83,300 mark. After experiencing a 7.5% rise last week, the surge has prompted profit-taking from large holders. Analysts emphasize that the search for short-term direction continues, guided by technical indicators and institutional transactions.
Technical Indicators Signal Indecision
The expansion of Bollinger Bands on daily price charts indicates potential for continued volatility. Bitcoin’s movement near the 20-day moving average suggests that it must surpass the $87,100 level to regain upward momentum. Conversely, prices nearing the lower band highlight the risk of dropping below $77,900.
While the Relative Strength Index (RSI) manages to stay above 49, a definitive direction has yet to form. Although the MACD indicator shows a slight upward signal, the histogram’s horizontal movement indicates a lack of strong market momentum. Additionally, a 9% decrease in daily trading volume has been observed.
According to Ali Martinez, whales have offloaded 29,000 BTC since April 9. These sales are aimed at short-term profit realization and increase pressure on the market.
Institutional Purchases and Liquidation Risks
Notable movements are occurring on the institutional front. Semler Scientific has applied to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for a $500 million securities sale. The company plans to use part of this revenue for a $29.75 million settlement with the Justice Department, intending to secure a loan through Coinbase with 3,192 BTC as collateral.
Moreover, MicroStrategy’s executive Michael Saylor announced a new Bitcoin purchase worth $285 million this week. Such acquisitions reflect long-term confidence from institutional investors, while also increasing upward pressure in the market.
Analyst Martinez noted that if Bitcoin reaches the $86,900 level, approximately $600 million worth of short positions will be liquidated. This threshold could act as a trigger for a short-term bounce.
Decreasing BTC Supply on Exchanges
Investor Evan Luthra pointed out that Bitcoin supply on exchanges is dwindling, potentially shifting the supply-demand balance in favor of investors. Luthra emphasized, “The squeeze is real,” indicating a tightening market. These developments may lay the groundwork for a much-anticipated bounce among investors.
Market participants are closely monitoring current technical levels and institutional interactions. During periods of increased uncertainty, technical analysis indicators and major transactions play a critical role in investment decisions.
