Bitcoin has slipped back to the price range last seen in March 2024, despite robust buying from institutional players. This sharp pullback is now prompting close scrutiny across the cryptocurrency market, as investors debate whether the latest downturn signals a deeper distribution phase or simply marks a short-term correction.
Bitcoin returns to previous cycle levels
Analysts reviewing market data point out that Bitcoin’s retreat towards its March 2024 level is especially noteworthy. This decline comes at a time when demand from spot exchange traded funds and steady accumulation by institutional companies like Strategy remain strong.
Strategy, previously known as MicroStrategy, is a US-based software company renowned for holding a sizeable amount of Bitcoin on its balance sheet. Its ongoing aggressive purchasing strategy is frequently referenced in market discussions about Bitcoin supply and demand dynamics.
Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, described the current period as “resembling a significant transfer of ownership,” adding that the average cost basis for Bitcoin investors now hovers near $53,000.
The analysis underscores that investors’ average cost foundation sits at approximately $53,000, a figure that has become critical in assessing market sentiment. Reflecting on past “bear” cycles, the report notes that Bitcoin often forms its bottom after dropping below the realized price—a pattern that’s drawing additional attention to current market weakness.
Institutional buying unable to halt the decline
Data indicates that since January 2023, Strategy has acquired 711,206 BTC while selling only 32 BTC in the same period, resulting in a net removal of 711,174 BTC from active circulation.
Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin ETFs have absorbed 509,102 BTC since March 2024, with Strategy adding another 650,706 BTC over that stretch. All told, these two channels have withdrawn a combined total of 1,240,808 BTC.
| Source | BTC amount | Period |
|---|---|---|
| Strategy net purchase | 711,174 BTC | After January 2023 |
| Spot ETF purchase | 509,102 BTC | After March 2024 |
| Total absorption | 1,240,808 BTC | Combined total |
In spite of these massive acquisitions, Bitcoin’s price recently slipped back to around $63,000. As other data shows, reserves on exchanges are about 2.7 million BTC, while the amount associated with Satoshi Nakamoto is reportedly close to 1 million BTC. This comparison casts light on the persistent selling pressure that continues to dominate the market.
$59,800 emerges as a key short-term threshold
A separate technical analyst highlighted that Bitcoin slid from $82,800 down to $61,350, marking a 26 percent drop. The analyst had identified the $80,000 to $82,000 range as a key resistance zone on May 9, after which prices retreated sharply from these levels.
According to this analyst, $59,800 now stands out as the primary level to watch in the short term, as a definitive break below could open the door for much lower price targets.
The assessment positions $59,800 as a critical support within the current market structure. Should Bitcoin breach this level convincingly, prices below $50,000 and even a drop towards the $40,000 zone could return to the agenda. The same analyst considers the $40,000 to $60,000 region as a gradual accumulation area for longer term investors.
With supply and institutional accumulation now facing off, the market is poised at a pivotal moment. Traders are watching closely to see whether buyers can defend the $59,800 level and if institutional demand will keep Bitcoin above key cycle thresholds.
