As of June 28, the XRP price hovers near $1.05, with technical indicators suggesting that the downtrend has not yet fully reversed. While there are some early signs that selling pressure may be easing in the short run, caution remains the dominant attitude in the broader market outlook.
Sustained pressure in the weekly outlook
Market analyst ChartNerdTA published a chart on June 28 showing that XRP has now fallen below an ascending support line it had preserved for several months. This breakdown followed the failure to reclaim the 20-week exponential moving average, which sits around the $1.57 mark on the weekly chart.
In addition, XRP remains well below its 50-week exponential moving average at $1.83, underscoring that downward pressure on the primary trend remains unresolved. The analyst highlights that the weekly Stochastic RSI has flashed a bearish crossover for the third time since XRP hit its all-time high in July 2025.
ChartNerdTA emphasizes that this is not the right time to enter trades, pointing out that price structure has yet to show clear signs of renewed strength.
In the analyst’s review back in May, the same ascending support line held firm for over three months. Its recent break has now invalidated that technical formation, and persistent weakness above the $1.50 region has become even more apparent with this shift.
On-chain data highlights $1.06 as key level
Despite a weakening technical picture, on-chain data points to several price zones where buyers have historically concentrated. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez, referencing Glassnode’s UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) charts, identifies $1.06 as the most important near-term support.
Mini glossary: URPD is an on-chain distribution metric that shows how much of an asset has changed hands within specific price ranges. This indicator is used to identify key support and resistance zones by mapping where investors have the highest cost concentration.
At the $1.06 mark, more than 830 million XRP have previously been traded. Should selling deepen, the data reveals notable clusters of activity at $0.80, $0.62, and $0.51 as well. In these areas, approximately 923 million, 1.16 billion, and 1.06 billion XRP respectively have been accumulated.
| Level | Past Accumulation |
|---|---|
| $1.06 | Over 830 million XRP |
| $0.80 | About 923 million XRP |
| $0.62 | About 1.16 billion XRP |
| $0.51 | About 1.06 billion XRP |
Ali Martinez notes that the $1.06 zone is the most crucial defense in the short term and warns that any drop below this level could shift focus to the $0.80 area as the next key support.
Short term indicators send mixed signals
As per Bitstamp’s data, XRP is trading near $1.05 and has shown only a minor intraday increase. Technical tools on TradingView reveal that, while oscillators suggest a search for balance, trend-following indicators continue to reflect a weak profile.
The 14-day RSI measures 32.41, approaching oversold territory. Stochastic %K stands at 13.84, while the 20-period CCI reads minus 127.34. Momentum and Williams %R at minus 85.73 further suggest that selling could soon slow, yet the MACD for 12 and 26 periods remains negative at minus 0.0515.
Moving averages support the bearish case
Within this wider technical framework, most moving averages continue to flash a sell signal. The 10-period averages are in the $1.08 to $1.09 range, while the 50, 100, and 200-period averages sit between approximately $1.21 and $1.53, all reinforcing the downward bias.
A notable exception comes from the Hull Moving Average at around $1.025, which provides a buy signal, while the Ichimoku base line remains neutral. Overall, moving averages indicate roughly 13 sell signals, 1 neutral, and just 1 buy signal. In pivot point analysis, the classic pivot stands at $1.38, with the next major resistance at $1.50, and key support zones at $1.10 and $0.81.
Although a short-term reaction rally cannot be ruled out completely, XRP needs to hold the $1.06 support zone and reclaim higher resistance levels to regain momentum. Otherwise, market attention may rapidly shift towards the $0.80 demand area as the next battle line.
