Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart have increased the probability of approval for a spot Bitcoin ETF in the US to 90%. The analysts stated that they raised the probability percentage after Ark Invest and 21Shares updated their spot Bitcoin ETF applications, and the SEC did not object to the court decision that allowed Grayscale’s GBTC investment product to be converted into a spot Bitcoin ETF.
Probability of Approval for a Spot Bitcoin ETF Rises to 90%
Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart have raised the probability of approval for a spot Bitcoin ETF in the US to 90%. This move came after Ark Invest and 21Shares updated their spot Bitcoin ETF applications upon the request of the US SEC. The analysts expect the SEC to approve a spot Bitcoin ETF by January 10. The latest updates in spot Bitcoin ETF applications indicate that the SEC is managing a constructive process. Ark Invest added five pages to their ETF application regarding risk disclosures, new language, and more context.
According to Bloomberg analysts, “While these steps between the SEC and asset management companies have become a standard practice for new ETF launches, it is a first for a spot Bitcoin ETF and demonstrates the SEC’s efforts to approve Ark Invest’s spot Bitcoin ETF application.”
Furthermore, the analysts noted that Invesco & Galaxy also updated their spot Bitcoin ETF application following Ark Invest’s response to the SEC comments. It is expected that other spot Bitcoin ETF applicants will also update their applications soon.
SEC Cornered
The US federal regulatory body, SEC, did not object to the court decision regarding Grayscale. Bloomberg analysts stated that if the final decision date for the Grayscale case to convert GBTC into a spot Bitcoin ETF is set for this year, approval from the SEC could come earlier.
Analysts believe that the SEC’s Trading and Markets Division is cornered, with courts and other issuers pressuring the regulator to approve a spot Bitcoin ETF.
