The July 30, 2025 report by QCP Capital titled “Asia Colour” highlights the current stagnation of Bitcoin (BTC) 
$76,467 within the $116,000-$120,000 range and Ethereum 
$2,266’s (ETH) struggle near the $4,000 psychological threshold. The report suggests that institutional purchases, the approval process for spot ETFs, and regulatory improvements could pave the way for new peaks in the medium term. However, the limited response of prices to positive headlines indicates a vulnerability in the market. QCP analysts warned that a sudden squeeze of excessive short positions in the dollar could trigger a simultaneous wave of sales across stocks, emerging markets, and the cryptocurrency market.
Bitcoin and Ethereum’s Narrow Range
According to QCP Capital, a leading cryptocurrency trading company based in Singapore, Bitcoin fails to surpass the $120,000 mark sustainably, while steady buys at the $116,000 level limit downturns. Ethereum approaches the $4,000 mark, but neutral momentum indicators dampen its upward momentum. Despite continued Bitcoin purchases at low levels by Strategy and SharpLink Gaming through capital increases, the weak influx of new volume delays a breakout.
Strong institutional interest, positive developments in altcoin ETF applications, and supportive regulations by the US Congress lay the groundwork for market optimism in the medium term. However, price movements that remain unresponsive to bullish headlines might be indicative of an end-of-cycle warning and could set the stage for sudden sales.
The Dollar Squeeze Could Trigger a Market Sell-Off
Despite the prominent “weak dollar” expectation throughout 2025, the Dollar Index (DXY) has dropped 10% since the start of the year, narrowing the scope for further depreciation. CFTC data shows record dollar short positions in the USDJPY pair. The increasing cost of funding leaves these positions vulnerable.
QCP Capital analysts stress that an unexpected recovery of the dollar could trigger a broad risk-averse wave across stocks, emerging markets, and cryptocurrencies. As tariff wars begin to impact corporate profit margins and consumer prices in the third quarter, US inflation and employment data, along with messages from the Fed’s July and September interest rate meetings, will determine market direction.
