A joint research report released on March 12, 2026 by Ark Invest and Unchained analysts examines the far-reaching consequences that advances in quantum computing could have on Bitcoin. Although current technology falls short of posing a real threat, the report cautions that a breakthrough in quantum computing could jeopardize about 35% of the total Bitcoin supply by undermining its core cryptographic safeguards.
Which Bitcoins Are Vulnerable to Quantum Threats?
According to the study, approximately 6.9 million BTC—representing nearly 34.6% of all existing coins—are stored in addresses that could theoretically be compromised by future, highly advanced quantum computers. The largest at-risk segment consists of coins held in addresses whose public keys have already been revealed through prior transactions. This group alone accounts for close to 5 million BTC, or one-quarter of the entire supply.
In addition to these, roughly 1.7 million BTC reside in legacy “Pay-to-Public-Key” (P2PK) addresses, where public keys are directly visible on the blockchain. Notably, it is estimated that nearly 1 million BTC in these addresses belong to Bitcoin’s mysterious creator, Satoshi Nakamoto. The report also notes around 200,000 BTC are currently kept in Taproot (P2TR) addresses; these coins may migrate to other formats over time.
Quantum Capabilities: Not There Yet
The analysts emphasize that breaking Bitcoin’s underlying elliptic curve cryptography would require roughly 2,330 logical qubits and billions of quantum operations—a hurdle far beyond the reach of current quantum computers, which typically operate with under 100 logical qubits. David Puell, a research contributor from Ark Invest, stresses that such technological leaps will not occur overnight, but rather through gradual advancements. In his view, this slow pace allows software developers the time needed to implement crucial safeguards.
Furthermore, the report highlights that the cryptographic algorithms used by Bitcoin are also fundamental to the security of the internet, banking, and communications infrastructure worldwide. As a result, should a quantum leap occur, Bitcoin would likely not be the first system affected. Instead, entire industries would likely pivot simultaneously toward adopting post-quantum cryptographic solutions.
Mitigation Strategies in the Bitcoin Ecosystem
The report notes that efforts to counter potential quantum threats are already underway within the Bitcoin ecosystem. Proposals under discussion include enabling quantum-resistant address formats through a possible future soft fork and encouraging users to transfer their holdings to wallets protected by new cryptographic algorithms. One notable recommendation is BIP-360, known as Pay-to-Merkle-Root (P2MR), which seeks to prevent public keys from being disclosed during transactions—thereby helping users move assets to inherently safer addresses.
Looking further ahead, if the quantum threat materializes, community-driven governance measures such as restricting or even freezing coins that remain in unsecured formats could be considered within the Bitcoin network. However, report authors caution that these far-reaching steps would require broad consensus across the decentralized ecosystem.
In summary, the report concludes that while quantum computers do not yet present an urgent danger to Bitcoin’s security, the ecosystem has valuable time to prepare with robust mitigation strategies. The ongoing work to upgrade cryptographic standards and address vulnerabilities underscores the proactive stance being taken by the Bitcoin community.
