Rapid advances in quantum technologies have reignited longstanding concerns about the future security of Bitcoin. The possibility that a quantum computer, sufficiently powerful from a cryptographic perspective, could break Bitcoin’s current signature algorithm is being analyzed extensively by leading industry analysts, including James Check.
Quantum threat and dormant Satoshi-era BTC
Right now, Bitcoin’s security relies on elliptic curve cryptography. However, a functioning quantum computer could, in theory, compromise an estimated 1.7 million BTC whose corresponding public keys remain visible in wallets dating back to Bitcoin’s earliest years. At today’s prices, this stash is worth roughly $145 billion. While this figure might suggest the risk of overwhelming market sell pressure, recent analyses indicate the impact may prove more manageable than it appears at first glance.
James Check assesses the situation by stating,
“The real risk with quantum computing is that the total supply sitting in early Bitcoin addresses could hit the market much faster than most people realize.”
Most of these wallets, attributed to Satoshi Nakamoto and other early adopters from 2009 through 2011, have remained untouched for over a decade.
Liquidity and historical market absorption
Despite these warnings, when factoring in Bitcoin’s current market depth and trading volume, the scale of a hypothetical supply shock becomes clearer. During bull markets, long-term holders often sell between 10,000 and 30,000 BTC daily. If that sell pace held steady, the entirety of dormant Satoshi-era BTC could be absorbed into the market within two to three months. Furthermore, during a recent bear market, 2.3 million BTC changed hands in a single quarter without any systemic breakdown.
Additionally, cryptocurrency exchanges typically receive close to 850,000 BTC in monthly inflows. In derivative markets, trading volumes equivalent to the entire Satoshi-era stash can occur within just a few days. So while the figures may seem daunting in isolation, they represent a manageable proportion of Bitcoin’s total liquidity and daily turnover.
Immediate selling pressure and potential scenarios
Experts note that if such a quantum risk were to materialize, it could trigger a sharp, sudden wave of selling and volatility. Still, Check emphasizes that, “A rational economic actor is unlikely to liquidate such a massive fortune all at once and crash the price. To maximize gains, they would probably opt for gradual sales or hedge using derivative instruments.”
Historically, Bitcoin markets have demonstrated resilience in absorbing large inflows, with similar cycles of supply redistribution unfolding comfortably over several months.
Within this scenario, some suggest the true threat may lie less in immediate sell-offs and more in questions of governance. A proposal known as BIP-361—which seeks to freeze these Satoshi-era holdings in the Bitcoin protocol—has become a topic of recent debate. Ultimately, any lasting solution will depend on collective decisions and ongoing technical developments by the Bitcoin community.
