In the past six months, Ripple’s XRP has experienced a severe downturn, pushing its investors into deep pessimism. Blockchain data reveals a notable decline in the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), from 1.16 in July 2025 to 0.96 today, indicating that assets are being sold at a loss. This drop, starting from a peak of $3.5 in mid-July, has even led experienced investors who accumulated XRP before November 2024 to succumb to panic selling, highlighting the structural fragility in the market.
Distress Sales and Investor Psychology
Since August 2025, XRP has been on a downward spiral, losing 27% of its value by the end of October, landing at approximately $2.4. This persistent decline has fundamentally altered the behavior of long-term investors, who typically support the market. Seasoned wallet holders who acquired the asset before November 2024 have dramatically increased their daily expenditure by 580%, from $38 million to $260 million, dumping their coins into the market. Analysts emphasize that this pattern diverges from past profit-driven rallies, as it represents a “distribution in weakness” scenario.
By mid-November, the market’s outlook worsened considerably, with only 58.5% of XRP’s supply remaining profitable, marking the lowest point in a year. Although XRP was trading at $2.15, a fourfold increase from its $0.53 value in November 2024, 41% of the supply sat at a loss. Newer, less experienced traders dominated the market, making it “top-heavy” and putting significant strain on XRP’s price stability.
Psychological Barriers and the Capitulation Debate
When XRP dipped below the $2 mark in mid-November, estimated daily losses soared to a market average of $75 million. Every time XRP tested $2 since the beginning of the year, investors sold their assets, absorbing colossal weekly losses ranging from $500 million to $1.2 billion. This shift of $2 from a psychological support level to a point of capitulation sparked mass sell-offs. Currently trading at $1.40, XRP has lost its cumulative holding cost base, signifying widespread panic in the market.
Market specialists describe this tumultuous scenario not as a “structural failure,” but rather as a signal of “capitulation.” Unlike the similar downturns of 2022, today’s clarity on regulatory fronts and firmer fundamentals provide a different perspective. While the current SOPR declines conjure memories of the drops in September 2021 and May 2022, those periods eventually led to prolonged consolidation that stabilized prices. XRP holders now face a critical question: Are these substantial losses an indication of market bottoming, or is a deeper plunge imminent?
