XRP investors are enduring one of the most severe periods of unrealized losses in the token’s history. Despite this challenging backdrop, on-chain data suggests that the current wave of selling might be nearing exhaustion—a scenario that could lay the foundation for a market rebound.
Historic lows for MVRV ratios signal extreme pain
According to Santiment data, XRP’s average trading returns have dropped to their lowest level in 12 years. The token’s 30-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio has fallen to negative 45%, while the 365-day MVRV stands at negative 47%. This indicates that both short-term and long-term holders are, on average, sitting on significant paper losses.
Santiment pointed out that this is a first in XRP’s history, with both short and long-term MVRV ratios plummeting simultaneously to such depressed levels. The firm notes that this extreme scenario reflects rare pessimism among investors and pronounced market fatigue. Adding to the bearish picture, the monthly RSI indicator has also reached record lows in oversold territory.
According to Santiment’s findings, both the 30-day and 365-day MVRV ratios in XRP have hit all-time lows simultaneously, exposing investors to widespread unrealized losses.
If selling pressure eases, relief rally could gain ground
Historically, periods marked by fear and capitulation of this magnitude have often preceded major turning points in the market. Should selling pressure subside and weak hands exit, even modest buying interest can trigger a robust relief rally.
For this reason, Santiment highlights that extreme MVRV readings in crypto often correspond to prime accumulation zones. However, the firm also cautions that if broader market weakness persists, XRP could face renewed downward pressure.
| Indicator | Level | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| 30 day MVRV | Negative 45% | Short-term holders on average at a loss |
| 365 day MVRV | Negative 47% | Long-term holders deeply underwater |
| XRP price | $1.10 | Range historically viewed as oversold |
Technical outlook and exchange outflows in focus
CoinCodex data shows XRP was trading at $1.10 at the time of reporting—a level many analysts consider indicative of historic overselling in the market.
On the technical front, XRP continues to trade within a triangle pattern, forming progressively higher lows. Analysts associate this setup with periods when market momentum gradually builds, potentially setting the stage for a reversal.
Another positive sign has been the withdrawal of hundreds of millions of XRP from major crypto exchanges in recent weeks. This outflow, as investors move tokens from exchange wallets to private custody, often signals accumulation rather than imminent selling.
If overall market sentiment improves, the combination of record low MVRV ratios, sustained exchange outflows, and strengthening technical posture could pave the way for a meaningful recovery in XRP.
While volatility risks remain elevated in the short term, recent on-chain metrics point to one of the most robust accumulation zones ever recorded for XRP. Still, if broader market conditions fail to recover, downward risks for the token are not entirely off the table.
