In the dynamic realm of cryptocurrency investments, the focus has recently shifted back to Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), particularly with the spotlight on the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) spot XRP ETF application. The heightened interest garnered by Bitcoin 
$106,701 and Ethereum 
$2,530 spot ETFs has set a similar expectation for XRP. However, the recent lackluster performance of Teucrium’s futures XRP ETF brings up the question: will an approved spot version attract genuine demand? Market uncertainties are shaping the decisions of both institutional and individual investors.
Spot vs. Futures ETF Distinctions for XRP
In spot ETFs, the fund directly holds cryptocurrency, providing actual asset representation per share, thus exposing investors to price movements without storage risks. Meanwhile, futures ETFs invest in crypto futures contracts, with returns varying based on price forecasts at maturity. This essential difference influences market tracking and cash flow dynamics.
Futures products, while requiring less price tracking during slow periods, may incur high carrying costs. In contrast, spot products are subject to legal regulations and security protocols concerning asset storage. Investors must weigh these advantages and disadvantages to determine what fits their portfolios best.
Expectations and Potential Risks
Recent Polymarket data indicates that predictions regarding the approval likelihood of the spot XRP ETF have rapidly risen over the past weeks. Conversely, the limited capital influx seen with Brazil’s traded spot Ripple 
$2 ETF reminds us that initial excitement alone doesn’t guarantee performance. Liquidity depth, transaction volume, and market maker support will be pivotal in influencing potential price movements.
Analysts at JP Morgan suggest that if approval is granted, XRP may gain momentum, with prices potentially reaching the $30 region in the medium term. However, as the SEC’s decision-making process prolongs, market sentiment is expected to fluctuate. Regardless of the outcome, increased volatility will present both opportunities for short-term gains and risks of sudden pullbacks.
Investors are closely monitoring performance discrepancies, particularly in futures products. While the declining asset management value of the XXRP futures ETF has led some fund flow forecasts to the $1‑2 billion range, optimistic institutions predict the figure could double. The final decision rests with the SEC; its forthcoming ruling could be a critical turning point that defines the direction of the spot cryptocurrency ETF ecosystem by 2025.
