Silver hovered close to $59 an ounce Tuesday, supported by geopolitical tensions and renewed interest in precious metals even as the prospect of higher US interest rates loomed. The metal outperformed gold, which posted a smaller gain during the same period.
Technical Setups Signal Potential Volatility
Spot silver gained 1.2% to $58.88 by 6:50 a.m. GMT on August 4, ahead of the release of key US job openings data later in the day. The report, set for 10 a.m. Eastern, is seen as crucial for traders seeking clues about the Federal Reserve’s next policy decision. Market participants attributed a 65% probability to a rate hike in September, a scenario that could weigh on non-yielding assets like silver if US Treasury yields and the dollar strengthen.
Short-term chart patterns illustrated that silver prices are squeezed between rising support and a descending resistance line, forming a tightening triangle. The metal traded around $57.92, with immediate support at $57.90. The next downside markers emerged at $57.10 and $54.36, suggesting that failure to hold above these levels could trigger selling pressure.
On the upside, resistance appeared near $58.20, followed by $58.70 and $59.20. Sustained buying through $59.20 would break the current ceiling, enabling silver to challenge the psychological $60 level.
Traders noted that clearing resistance briefly is not enough to confirm the next leg higher; holding the breakout level on a retest is required. A drop below the rising trendline and $57.10 would shift the bias toward further declines, exposing the $54.36 support.
Gold-Silver Ratio Highlights Relative Strength
The metal’s divergence from gold also offered insights into market sentiment. The gold-silver ratio was recently at 68.93, trading below its 50-period exponential moving average of 69.82. The relative strength index hovered at 41, reflecting weakened momentum in the ratio.
A declining ratio indicates silver is outperforming gold. Maintaining a level below 68 may reinforce the bullish case for silver, while a rebound above 69.80 to 70 suggests a rotation back toward gold as the preferred asset.
| Level | Support | Resistance |
|---|---|---|
| Immediate | $57.90 | $58.20 |
| Next | $57.10 | $58.70 |
| Major | $54.36 | $59.20 |
Inventory Trends and Analyst Forecasts
Away from the charts, the physical silver market faces tightening supplies. Stock reports indicated a slide from roughly 525 million ounces in late 2025 to around 313 million ounces by spring 2026. Levels later improved to near 330 million ounces, but inventories remain well below the prior high.
Mini dictionary: The Silver Institute, a global nonprofit industry association, provides research and data on silver supply, demand, and investment trends worldwide.
The Silver Institute projected that global mine output would remain nearly flat in 2026, while the market deficit would widen to 46.3 million ounces.
Reuters surveyed analysts who expect silver to average around $71.90 an ounce in 2026, revising down a previous forecast of $78. The adjustment reflects concerns about weaker industrial growth and reduced solar-sector demand, although analysts anticipate that the artificial intelligence, electric vehicle, and renewable energy sectors could boost demand longer term.
Silver’s next move depends on whether it can break convincingly above $59.20 or falls below $57.10, with market attention focused on the outcome of upcoming US labor data.
