After failing to break the key resistance at 98 dollars on May 11, Solana sharply lost around 15 percent in value, dropping to the 85 dollar range. Recent selling pressure across the crypto market has been clearly reflected in Solana’s pronounced pullback. Following the selloff, the cryptocurrency briefly tested the 83.35 dollar level, finding temporary support there. Currently, Solana is trading below the 100-hour moving average on hourly charts and facing resistance in the 85 dollar zone.
Technical overview and analyst insights
A key detail from the technical analysis is that there has been no upward break from the existing downtrend in the chart. According to crypto market analyst Ali Charts, as posted on X, Solana struggled at the 98 dollar mark and was rejected, a move that could push the price toward channel support at 78 dollars. This specific level is now under close watch by active traders.
In his assessment, Ali Charts pointed out that Solana’s inability to surpass 98 dollars may press the price as low as the lower boundary of the channel at 78 dollars, a level he flagged as critical for the token’s trajectory.
Analysts indicate that the first resistance appears at 85 dollars, followed by 85.80. If recovery proves elusive, strong support zones are seen at the 82 and 80 dollar marks. For the mid-term, a key base is found at 75 dollars, potentially setting a foundation for future price action.
Striking trends in perpetual futures markets
Solana’s perpetual futures markets have seen funding rates swing sharply negative within a short span. While the rate hovered around positive 8 percent over the weekend, it tumbled to minus 3 percent by Tuesday. Under normal market conditions, these rates are usually near zero or slightly positive, so pronounced negative rates suggest a surge in short (downward) positions and signal that most market participants expect further downside in the price.
Following the recent plunge, interest in leveraged long positions in Solana below 90 dollars has virtually vanished in forward-dated contracts. This improvement in shorting pressure hints at the possibility of heightened volatility in the near term.
Glossary: Perpetual futures contracts are derivatives traded on exchanges that have no expiration date and use funding rates to balance long and short positions. A negative funding rate means short (bearish) positions dominate.
Declining network activity and revenue
Trading volumes in Solana’s decentralized exchange (DEX) ecosystem have contracted sharply, registering a 56 percent decline since the start of the year. Weekly DEX volume, which hit 25 billion dollars in January, has dropped to about 11 billion in early May.
Similarly, the weekly revenue generated by applications on Solana’s blockchain has fallen from around 35 million dollars at the year’s outset to roughly 20 million dollars now. Among the top-earning projects—Pump, Axiom Pro, Phantom, and Jupiter—these four collectively account for 65 percent of all app revenue on the network.
Despite the downturn, Solana remains the number two network by total value locked (TVL), with 5.9 billion dollars—still ahead of competitors like BNB Chain and Base in this metric.
Competition and possible trade manipulation
Looking at market share, Solana is facing mounting pressure from emerging rivals such as Hyperliquid and Base. Hyperliquid has posted aggressive growth in the perpetual contract space, while the Base chain, leveraging Coinbase’s infrastructure, is steadily attracting a broader user base.
Meanwhile, on the PreStocks synthetic asset platform built on Solana, unusual trading volumes have come under scrutiny. Analysis shows that roughly 1,600 wallet addresses are responsible for 63 percent of all transaction volume, raising suspicion that these moves may be driven by arbitrage strategies or volume inflation activities.
Currently, investors are closely monitoring the 82 to 83.5 dollar range, viewing it as the most crucial near-term support band for Solana’s price action.
