According to data compiled by CryptoQuant, spending by investors who acquired their Bitcoin over five years ago has dipped sharply, with the 90 day moving average sitting at just 962 BTC. This marks the lowest level seen since November 2024. The data reveals that after three distinct waves of selling pressure over the past two years, long term holders have significantly slowed their selling activity.
Sell pressure weakens among long term Bitcoin holders
Crypto analyst Darkfost commented that during this current cycle, long term Bitcoin investors saw one of the highest periods of selling activity on record. The group under examination is made up of wallets that have held Bitcoin for at least five years. The analysis uses spent transaction output data to keep track of the volume of Bitcoin being moved across the network.
According to this metric, the 90 day moving average peaked at 3,860 BTC in May 2024, 3,200 BTC in February 2025, and 2,360 BTC in September 2025. On certain single days, the amount moved on the network surpassed 10,000 BTC, 30,000 BTC, and even soared above 142,000 BTC.
Data shows that following three major surges in the past two years, periods of intense selling by long term holders have been replaced by a more restrained approach to spending.
Recently, this selling pressure has sharply decreased. With the 90 day average now at just 962 BTC, Darkfost noted that among the coins held by this group, the highest cost basis is around $63,200 per Bitcoin. Despite market prices currently hovering near this level, many investors are choosing to hold instead of sell, suggesting that seasoned Bitcoin owners remain patient.
Gap widens between new and veteran investors
Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. observed a significant divergence between new and long term market participants. According to Adler Jr., Bitcoin’s adjusted Net Unrealized Profit Loss (aNUPL) indicator, which was near zero a month ago, has now dropped to minus 0.14. While BTC traded close to $62,500, this figure suggested that the average investor had gone back into unrealized loss territory.
Mini glossary: aNUPL is an indicator that reveals whether investors are currently sitting on paper profits or losses. Values below zero may indicate growing pressure from market wide losses.
Adler Jr. highlighted that for almost half of the last three months, the aNUPL indicator stayed below zero, which he argued is a sign that newer market entrants are primarily bearing the brunt of the pressure.
According to the analyst, this situation points not to a mass capitulation among long term holders, but rather to ongoing challenges faced by investors who bought in more recently and have a shorter investment horizon.
Halving cycle points to September for possible bottom
In a separate assessment, analyst LP drew attention to a recurring pattern linked to Bitcoin’s halving cycles. In previous bear markets, the final sharp decline took place 826 days after the halving, after which the main bottom was set and prices moved sideways for between 70 and 110 days.
In the present cycle, this 826 day threshold matches up with July 6. If history repeats, the calendar suggests that a possible bottom could emerge in the early part of September. The analyst stressed that this scenario would carry greater weight if Bitcoin can hold higher levels until the beginning of July.
Trader Titan also pointed out that there is an untested area of liquidity beneath the current price levels. On the quarterly chart, an unclaimed low exists around $58,900, with a clear fair value gap between roughly $49,000 and $58,900. Analysts suggest this range could become important for spotting a potential market bottom between the third and fourth quarters.
