Bitcoin surged 7% last week to climb above $81,000 for the first time in over three months. Yet, despite this striking rally, caution still prevails among investors in the derivatives market. On-chain data also suggests that user activity on the network has yet to recover. However, record inflows into US-listed Bitcoin spot ETFs reflect surging institutional interest in the market.
Cautious tone dominates derivatives markets
Data from futures and options trading reveal that professional investors remain wary even as the price of Bitcoin rallies. On Tuesday, the annualized premium rate for two-month Bitcoin futures contracts remained at 1%. Typically, sellers demand a premium between 4% and 8% to offset capital costs. This unusually low rate indicates persistent prudence across the market.
The options market paints a similar picture. The price spread between call and put options held steady in a narrow range of -6 to +6, indicating balanced sentiment. At the same time, the delta skew index, which reflects how concerned professional investors are about downside risk, hovered near neutral on Tuesday but stayed slightly in negative territory. While major investors do not appear overly worried about potential steep declines, the conviction in continued bullish momentum seems to be weakening.
Broader global macroeconomic developments are also influencing market sentiment. With Brent crude oil prices approaching $110 and US five-year inflation expectations reaching 2.5%—their highest level in a decade—risk appetite has seen some restraint. Nevertheless, the Nasdaq 100, led by technology stocks, set a fresh all-time high, signaling optimism for risky assets.
On-chain data reveals weak network activity
Despite sharp price action, Bitcoin network statistics point to relatively low market engagement. Over the past three months, daily transfer volume has dropped 54% to $4.1 billion. The number of transactions is also closing in on five-year lows. Such on-chain data suggest subdued user interest and that mass adoption still hasn’t gained pace.
Adding to this, Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy created sporadic concern among investors by halting Bitcoin purchases ahead of its quarterly earnings release. Nonetheless, the company aggressively resumed accumulation over the past four weeks. Analysts now expect MicroStrategy to report a net loss this quarter due to mark-to-market accounting requirements.
ETF inflows set new records
A standout development has been the surge of capital into Bitcoin spot ETFs. Between Friday and Monday, US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of $1.16 billion. This reveals renewed vigor among institutional investors and directly contributed to the price uptick. According to CryptoAppsy data, Bitcoin rallied past $81,000—its highest point in three months.
Leverage demand in derivatives remained subdued, suggesting that if prices rise further, short-positioned traders may be forced to close, potentially sparking a new wave of upward momentum.
While spot ETF inflows are strong, stagnant on-chain activity and sluggish derivatives trading highlight the stark contrast between institutional and retail investors.
