Bloomberg Intelligence analyst James Seyffart has stated that despite some expectations, the likelihood of a spot XRP ETF being launched in the US throughout the year is extremely low. The ongoing lawsuit between Ripple and the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and the lack of regulatory frameworks for XRP, underpin Seyffart’s negative view. Following this, the analyst mentioned that a spot XRP ETF could be approved in the US by 2025.
Potential Spot XRP ETF Could Arrive in 2025
Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Seyffart indicated that the launch of a spot XRP ETF in the US this year seems unlikely due to several key factors. The analyst pointed to the ongoing lawsuit between Ripple and the SEC as the first factor, which causes uncertainty regarding the legal status of the altcoin.
As a second factor, he reminded that the US already has Bitcoin and Ethereum futures ETFs, which have paved the way for the approval of spot ETFs. Seyffart highlighted the absence of a futures ETF for Ripple’s XRP, stating: “There is already a futures ETF for both Bitcoin and Ethereum regulated by the CFTC at the CME. These are futures ETFs in a regulated market and have paved the way for spot ETFs. We don’t have such a thing for XRP.”
While noting the 70% probability of spot Ethereum ETFs being approved this year following spot Bitcoin ETFs, Seyffart added that a spot XRP ETF could be approved in the US in 2025 if the regulatory environment improves.
It is known that the SEC recently approved a series of spot Bitcoin ETF applications from major financial players, including BlackRock, Fidelity, Grayscale, Bitwise, Franklin Templeton, among others. Amidst the confusion surrounding the green light, Bitcoin is currently trading at $46,300. Experts believe that the approval of spot ETFs could drive Bitcoin’s price to new record levels in the medium to long term.
Upcoming Key Developments in Ripple-SEC Lawsuit
The legal battle between Ripple and the SEC is moving towards its final act with a major hearing scheduled for April 23, 2024. Last year, Ripple achieved three critical (albeit partial) victories, seemingly gaining the upper hand. Both parties are required to comply with all necessary procedures before the court meeting. The SEC must submit a summary of its settlement proposals by March 13, 2024, and Ripple by April 12, 2024.
The cryptocurrency world, especially the XRP community, eagerly awaits the outcome of the case. A clear victory for Ripple could reduce the SEC’s pressure on the market, potentially boosting positive momentum across the market and aiding in legitimizing the entire sector. On the other hand, a win for the SEC could negatively impact the altcoin market and impose strict regulations that could dampen investor interest.
