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The likelihood of a spot XRP ETF gaining approval in the United States has surged dramatically in recent days. According to data from Polymarket, expectations have risen from 73% to 83%, drawing significant attention from both institutional investors and individual market players towards XRP. Key applications from industry giants like Grayscale and Franklin Templeton, combined with Ripple 
$2 CEO Brad Garlinghouse’s robust endorsement of the ETF concept, have significantly brightened the market outlook for this altcoin. Despite the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) decision to delay its final judgment, confidence in the approval of the ETF is at an all-time high.
XRP’s Approval Likelihood Fuels Institutional Appetite
At the beginning of last year, the striking success of spot Bitcoin 
$104,916 ETFs granted mutual funds an unparalleled momentum in the crypto world. The potential approval for XRP is seen as a catalyst for a similar capital influx. Polymarket’s 83% assessment signals that the market is taking a favorable stance towards XRP in the “risk-reward” balance. Behind this movement lies a desire among traditional funds to take a position in XRP via a regulated product, providing portfolio diversification without the need to manage private keys or bear the risk of exchange hacks.
Another factor boosting institutional demand is the strong interest shown in existing futures-based XRP products in the market. The inaugural XRP futures ETF by Volatility Shares, followed by CME’s contracts and Tectrium’s 2x long daily ETF, created a liquid foundation for price discovery. The rapid adoption of these products clearly indicates a shift in institutional capital strategies from a “wait-and-see” approach to an “early positioning” one. A majority of investors believe that with the approval news, both volume and price will move in tandem.
October Anticipated for ETF Approval
Though the SEC’s review schedule has tested the patience of the market, indications suggest that the process is proceeding normally, as observed in previous delays. Experts anticipate that a final decision will be reached by no later than October, offering XRP investors an approximate five-month “pricing window.”
The initial three months following the Bitcoin ETF approval resulted in a net inflow of 70 billion dollars, which lays a promising foundation for XRP’s optimistic scenario as well. Garlinghouse’s statement that “ETFs bring cryptocurrency into the mainstream” mitigates regulatory risk perceptions and encourages participation.
In terms of pricing, XRP has achieved an increase of over 335% since the start of the year, satisfying long-term buyers. Although the current price hovers around 2.34 dollars, investor sentiment remains strong. Especially with the increase in volume, potential new highs may be on the horizon before an official approval. Technical analysts expect that until rumors about approval solidify, profit-taking will remain limited. This environment implies that every official update from the SEC’s schedule will directly influence the pulse of the XRP market.
