The “XRP ETF Approval by End of 2025” contract traded on Polymarket has seen a significant rise, increasing by 23% within just thirty days to reach a price of $0.93. This upward trend suggests a confident expectation of approval from the SEC among investors. Such optimism finds support in the favorable rulings of the Ripple 
$1-SEC case, growing institutional demand, and the popularity of XRP future contracts on the CME Group. Despite procedural rejections issued by Judge Analisa Torres, the anticipation remains firm. The market now expects a similar flow of funds into the XRP ETF as observed in Bitcoin 
$78,680 and Ethereum 
$2,316 ETFs.
Polymarket’s Optimism in XRP Shines Bright
Participants in Polymarket’s “XRP ETF Approval by End of 2025” contract are pricing the approval probability at 93%. This surge in interest derives from multiple factors. The significant $58 billion asset accumulation by Bitcoin ETFs since early 2024, pressure on the SEC for fair treatment, favorable court rulings regarding XRP not being a security in most transactions, and a surprising increase in futures trading volume all contribute.
The CME Group’s $1.2 billion total volume in the first month unveils the demand for institutional risk management tools. These developments have increased the depth of contracts on Polymarket and widened option premiums. Thus, the price of the contract now beams a nearly assured SEC approval.
The fluctuation in the XRP price furthers this sentiment. Over the past year, the altcoin surged by 331%, maintaining its upward trajectory apart from a brief pause in May. Spot fund plans from major institutions like CoinShares and Franklin Templeton keep demand alive towards the $2.50 psychological mark. Kaiko data reveals that the 90-day volatility has dipped to 38%, indicating that the new liquidity is smoothing price volatility. The 22% increase in order book depth over two weeks confirms that spot demand remains strong.
Prolonged SEC Process Keeps Expectations High
Since April 2024, the SEC has established a queue for a spot XRP ETF application, utilizing its 240-day extension right repeatedly to examine submissions from Bitwise and 21Shares. In late May, the SEC sought public feedback on CoinShares’ application, signaling that a decision might not come until the year’s end.
Legal analysts suggest that these extensions mirror the “delay first, approve later” pattern seen in Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF processes. Coinbase‘s legal director, Paul Grewal, interprets this delay as thorough examination rather than ultimate rejection, implying that the regulatory body aims to understand the altcoin market structure better.
The list of ETF applications for XRP continues to expand each month. Besides Bitwise and 21Shares, Canary Capital, Grayscale, Franklin Templeton, Crypto.com, Uphold, and Flare Networks are preparing ETF drafts.
Meanwhile, Dubai’s approval of the RLUSD stablecoin enhances Ripple’s global profile and opens new arbitrage channels for fund managers. According to a Brookings Institution report, crypto-focused legislative drafts in Congress might limit the SEC’s authority, potentially paving the way for batch approval of pending applications. While legal uncertainties could lead to market fluctuations in the short term, the interest from institutional capital and Polymarket data marks this year as pivotal for XRP.
