In the wake of a turbulent phase in the cryptocurrency market, Standard Chartered analyst Geoffrey Kendrick has identified $59,000 as the potential cycle low for Bitcoin in 2025. Kendrick has maintained his ambitious year end targets, projecting $100,000 for Bitcoin and $4,000 for Ethereum, even as recent sharp selloffs rattled investors and pushed prices downward.
ETF outflows and SpaceX cash demand take center stage
According to Kendrick, the recent wave of volatility can be traced primarily to accelerating outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs and increased liquidity demands ahead of the SpaceX IPO. Bitcoin dropped as low as $59,375 on June 5, marking a steep 53% retreat from the October 6 high of $126,000.
Kendrick declared in his latest assessment that the crypto winter has ended, noting that the market’s recovery phase is now underway.
Data shows that since the second week of May, more than $5.72 billion has exited spot Bitcoin ETFs traded in the United States. Kendrick highlighted that some investors closed out ETF positions to free up funds for the SpaceX IPO, a notable pattern influencing market liquidity.
SpaceX, the rocket and aerospace firm spearheaded by Elon Musk, saw its shares begin trading on NASDAQ at around $150 last Friday. The stock surged, quickly exceeding its offering price by roughly 26% after debut.
Mini glossary: Spot Bitcoin ETFs allow investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin’s price movements without directly holding the asset. An initial public offering (IPO) refers to the process of a company offering its shares for public trading on the stock exchange for the first time.
Kendrick expects that once the IPO process concludes, pressure from this specific liquidity drain should ease. He believes this could pave the way for renewed inflows into spot ETFs and reinforce the $59,000 level as a stronger support base for Bitcoin.
Expectations of easing macroeconomic pressures
A second key factor that could support a market rebound, Kendrick points out, is the potential de-escalation of geopolitical tensions. Talks within the G7 regarding a possible agreement between the US and Iran are seen as a development that could curb rising oil prices. Lower oil prices would in turn relieve pressure on US bond yields, creating a more favorable environment for crypto assets.
As of the latest data, Brent crude is hovering around $87 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate trades near $85. Former US President Donald Trump recently indicated that a deal with Iran might be possible, although later clarified on Truth Social that the publicly discussed terms do not align with those previously agreed, urging Tehran to act swiftly.
Despite ongoing uncertainties, Kendrick reiterated his year end targets and emphasized that if market conditions stabilize, Ethereum could outperform Bitcoin in the short term.
Kendrick also shared the three main indicators he’s watching to confirm a market bottom: announcements of fresh Bitcoin purchases by major funds such as Strategy, a return to net positive daily inflows to US spot Bitcoin ETFs, and a sustained drop in international oil prices over the coming week. At the time his note was published, Bitcoin was trading just below $64,000.
