The interplay of tariffs, the Federal Reserve, and inflation underpins the August downturn in cryptocurrencies. This trend aligns with the Producer Price Index (PPI) data released last week, highlighting the pivotal $112,500 level for Bitcoin (BTC) 
$76,351. Contrary to former President Trump’s assertions, the data reveals that the impact of tariffs on inflation is far from limited.
Decline in Cryptocurrencies
Following the PPI data, the release of the Federal Reserve minutes, the onset of the Jackson Hole Symposium, and Friday’s statements by Chairman Powell present a daunting combination that suppresses risk appetite. Despite three Federal Reserve members, including Miran, openly endorsing rate cuts, only two anticipated cuts due to a cooling job market prior to the PPI release. Nonetheless, securing the seven-member consensus remains elusive.
The current scenario is stark: inflation is on the rise, the PPI hints at further Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases, employment is cooling, and the effective tariff rate has reached 17%. Tariff rates implemented on August 1st surpass the 10% base rate, potentially pushing customs revenue to $40 billion this month. The September reports concerning August data are likely to bring unwelcome news, which seems to be a foregone conclusion for many amidst impending employment and inflation figures.
Weakening Risk Appetite
Developments have undermined investor risk appetite, leading to a broadly negative outlook for the week. There were signs of a potential rally fueled by substantial demands for Ethereum (ETH) 
$2,290, but ETH faltered close to its new all-time high, retreating $80 to $100 shy of the mark.
Despite Trump’s calls for rate cuts, without unprecedented developments, it’s challenging for Powell and the majority to favor a reduction. Even if a cut occurs, the current environment of rapid inflation growth is expected to result in the Fed’s first and possibly last reduction of the year.
According to FedWatch, the probability of a cut hovers around 85%, with expectations for a 100 basis point reduction aligned with Powell’s perspective, likely not materializing until April 2026.
Amid clear signs that tariffs are driving inflation up, there’s little rationale for expecting a divergent scenario with this week’s Federal Reserve minutes, the Jackson Hole Symposium, and Friday’s Powell statements looming overhead. When the PPI data emerged, with BTC at $120,000 and ETH at $4,650, the potential for accelerating decline was evident, and the expected occurred. As tariffs impacted every nation in August, their reflection in the PPI data will become more pronounced. The Federal Reserve will observe these updated metrics before the next meeting. Should a similar surge to that within the PPI occur, maintaining fixed rates may find the Federal Reserve in a dovish predicament.
